Novartis sees sales boost from key cancer drugs

By Ludwig Burger and Bhanvi Satija

FRANKFURT (Reuters) -Swiss drugmaker Novartis on Thursday forecast sales growth of 5% to 6% per year to 2030, on a currency-adjusted basis, as higher forecast peak sales for cancer drugs Kisqali and Scemblix offset losses from expiring patents. Shares of the company rose about 1% in early trade. They have gained 16% so far this year.

Novartis has been on a $30-billion spending spree on acquisitions and licensing deals this year to bolster its pipeline ahead of patent expiries for its top-selling heart treatment Entresto and asthma drug Xolair.

HIGHER PEAK SALES FORECASTS

The company said it now expects peak sales for breast cancer drug Kisqali of at least $10 billion, versus a previous estimate of $8 billion.

For leukaemia drug Scemblix, it expects peak sales of at least $4 billion, up from at least $3 billion.

Jefferies analysts said there was "ample room" to raise targets further for the two drugs. In the first nine months of 2025, Kisqali and Scemblix made combined sales of $4.4 billion.

Novartis said its eight most promising approved drugs each had peak-sales potential of $3 billion to $10 billion.

Investors will continue to take a cautious approach for growth beyond 2030, JP Morgan analysts said, given looming patent expiries and potential pricing pressure for Kisqali towards the end of the decade.

CEO Vas Narasimhan said sales projections for Kisqali assumed it would be selected for price negotiations under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act in 2027.

"We think that IRA will have a limited impact on Kisqali in the first year," he said on a call with journalists.

The company's ability to deliver on its targets to 2030 and beyond hinges on the success of experimental drugs including recently approved skin disease drug Rhapsido and muscle-disorder treatment candidates acquired through the recent $12 billion deal for Avidity Biosciences.

Novartis has said it expects its planned acquisition of Avidity to lift its projected annual sales growth for 2024–2029 to 6%, up from the previously expected 5%.

"We'll have a high bar for what we want to ultimately go after," said Narasimhan about future deals.

Last month, Novartis posted third-quarter earnings roughly in line with forecasts, but weaker margins disappointed investors, while new drug growth did little to allay fears over a plateau in older product sales.

The company said on Thursday it was targeting a core operating income margin of at least 40% by 2029, after factoring in a 1-2 percentage point drag from the Avidity acquisition, expected to close in the first half of 2026.

This compares with a 41.2% margin in the first nine months of 2025.

(Reporting by Ludwig Burger in Frankfurt and Bhanvi Satija in London. Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Mark Potter)