Finance
Maersk flags softer 2026 earnings as Suez return, overcapacity hit freight rates
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 5, 2026
2 min readLast updated: February 5, 2026
Quick Summary
Maersk's Q4 results met expectations, but declining freight rates are expected to affect 2026 profits due to ongoing industry challenges.
Maersk Anticipates Lower Earnings in 2026 Due to Freight Rate Pressures
Maersk's Earnings Outlook and Industry Challenges
By Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen
Impact of Freight Rates on Earnings
COPENHAGEN, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Danish shipping giant Maersk on Thursday said falling freight rates driven by container-vessel overcapacity and gradual resumptions of shorter Red Sea routes could pressure earnings in 2026, dragging its shares down sharply.
Resumption of Red Sea Routes
Maersk, which reported a fourth-quarter operating profit roughly in line with forecasts, is contending with subdued industry demand, a surge in new vessels and a return to Red Sea routes that cut journey times but weigh on freight rates.
Future Projections for Global Trade
Shipping companies including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are weighing returns to the critical Asia-Europe trade corridor after vessels were rerouted around Africa in late 2023 following attacks in the Red Sea.
"We delivered a strong performance and high value for our customers in a year where supply chains and global trade continued to be reshaped by evolving geopolitics," CEO Vincent Clerc said in a statement. "As we enter 2026, we face another year of shifting market dynamics."
The company's shares were down over 6% on Thursday.
Maersk, which is often seen as a bellwether for global trade, projected global container-volume growth of 2% to 4% for 2026, a slowdown from 5% in 2025, citing recession risks in the global economy.
The company expects underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of between $4.5 billion and $7 billion this year, a drop from $9.53 billion recorded in 2025. Analysts polled by the company expect $6.49 billion.
Underlying EBITDA for the fourth quarter came in at $1.84 billion, just short of the $1.88 billion forecast by analysts.
Maersk on Tuesday said it would resume some transit routes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal this month under its shared services network with Germany's Hapag-Lloyd.
(Reporting by Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen, editing by Terje Solsvik and Thomas Derpinghaus)
Key Takeaways
- •Maersk's Q4 operating profit meets expectations.
- •Falling freight rates pose a challenge for future earnings.
- •Maersk anticipates impact on 2026 profits.
- •Ongoing industry challenges are highlighted.
- •The report was edited by Terje Solsvik.
Frequently Asked Questions about Maersk flags softer 2026 earnings as Suez return, overcapacity hit freight rates
1What are freight rates?
Freight rates are the charges applied for the transportation of goods by ship, truck, or other means. They can fluctuate based on demand, supply, and other economic factors.
2What is operating profit?
Operating profit is the income generated from regular business operations, excluding any income derived from non-operational activities like investments or sales of assets.
