Japan PM's big election win could mean more beef with Beijing

Japan's Security Strategy Post-Election

By Tim Kelly

TOKYO, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s thumping election win has blunted domestic opposition to her hawkish security agenda, encouraging plans to press ahead with a defence expansion that China has condemned as a return to militarism.

As the scale of her government's historic victory became clear on Sunday — capturing 352 of the 465 seats in the lower house — Takaichi said she would "work flat out to deliver" an agenda that includes building a military strong enough to deter Chinese threats to its islands, including those close to Taiwan.

Response to China

In November, Takaichi touched off a diplomatic storm with Beijing by suggesting Japan could respond militarily to any Chinese attack on the democratically governed island if it also threatened Japanese territory.

STANDING UP TO CHINA

"I expect to see Japan very forward-leaning on defence policy, such as her statements on a Taiwan contingency,” said Kevin Maher, a former U.S. diplomat now with NMV Consulting in Washington. “One impact could be that President Xi Jinping comes to understand her strong stance,” he added.

China responded furiously to Takaichi's Taiwan comment, promising to "resolutely prevent the resurgence of Japanese militarism" if Tokyo continued on its "wrong path". Beijing also imposed a series of economic countermeasures including a boycott on travel to Japan and export restrictions on items such as rare earths it says Tokyo could use in military equipment.

Shingo Yamagami, a senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation and a former Japanese ambassador to Australia, said the "hidden agenda" of the Sunday election was China.

"In light of belligerent actions and waves of economic coercion, should Japan acquiesce or stand tall?" he wrote on X. "The Japanese people clearly chose the latter."

Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to Japan, Lee Yi-yang, was among the first foreign dignitaries to congratulate Takaichi, writing on Facebook that her victory showed Japan was not intimidated by China’s "threats and pressure."

China's foreign ministry on Monday again urged Takaichi to withdraw her remarks on Taiwan and said its policy towards Japan would not be changed by one election.

"We urge Japan's ruling authorities to take seriously, rather than ignore, the concerns of the international community, and to pursue the path of peaceful development instead of repeating the mistakes of militarism," foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said.

Defense Spending Plans

SECURITY STRATEGY

Takaichi, a fan of Britain's former leader Margaret Thatcher, is already accelerating defence spending to bring it to a record 2% of gross domestic product by the end of March. She has also pledged to ease restrictions on arms exports and allow Japan to pursue joint defence equipment projects with other countries.

Her administration plans to formulate a new national security strategy, likely by year end, that would further accelerate military spending.

That could lift defence outlays to around 3% of GDP, an LDP lawmaker told Reuters ahead of Sunday's election, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity surrounding such a move.

The potential increase would follow pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump on Washington’s allies to raise defence spending.

Drawing lessons from nearly four years of war in Ukraine, Japan wants to build up munitions stockpiles and buy new equipment, including drones, to prepare for any prolonged conflict against a more powerful adversary, analysts say.

The scale of Takaichi's security ambitions could, however, be constrained by tax cuts and economic stimulus measures that would strain public finances, said Jeffrey Hornung, an expert on Japanese security policy at the RAND Corporation.

"Maybe you'll see an effort to spend more, but because of her plans to spend on consumer measures, they may not choose to push much further," he said.

Potential Constitutional Changes

The landslide victory could also bring a long-taboo security goal into view, one that would not burden public finances.

With more than a two-thirds majority in the lower house, she could table an amendment to Japan's pacifist constitution to formally recognise the Self-Defence Forces as a military. Any such change would still require a two-thirds majority in the upper house - which she does not currently control - and approval in a national referendum.

"It's not a slam dunk," Hornung said, "but probably the best chance for any prime minister.”

(Reporting by Tim Kelly; additional reporting by Tom Bateman and John Geddie in Tokyo, Ethan Wang in Beijing and Ben Blanchard in Taipei; editing by Lincoln Feast.)