Finance
IMF cuts Russia's 2026 growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8%
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on January 19, 2026
2 min readLast updated: January 19, 2026
Quick Summary
IMF reduces Russia's 2026 growth forecast to 0.8% due to economic challenges. Sanctions and high interest rates impact growth.
IMF cuts Russia's 2026 growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8%
IMF's Revised Economic Outlook for Russia
MOSCOW, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for Russia's economic growth in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8% on Monday.
Reasons Behind the Downgrade
The fund, which has not sent monitoring missions to assess the state of the country's economy since November 2019, before the start of the COVID pandemic, did not provide a reason for the downgrade.
Economic Challenges Facing Russia
Russia's President Vladimir Putin has asked the government and the central bank to bring the economy back on the path of "balanced growth" in 2026, which would be the fifth year of the war in Ukraine.
Impact of Western Sanctions
After showing resilience to Western sanctions during the first three years of the war in Ukraine, the Russian economy slowed to about 1% growth in 2025 from 4.3% in 2024 as a result of the central bank keeping the key interest rate high to fight inflation.
Central Bank's Growth Forecast
High costs of credit, an excessively strong rouble, labour shortages, tax hikes and falling state revenues from oil and gas are weighing down on the economy, making an economic rebound in 2026 unlikely.
The central bank forecasts economic growth of between 0.5% and 1.5% in 2026.
(Reporting by Gleb Bryanski)
Key Takeaways
- •IMF cuts Russia's 2026 growth forecast to 0.8%.
- •No specific reasons provided for the downgrade.
- •Russia faces economic challenges amid ongoing war.
- •Western sanctions and high interest rates impact growth.
- •Central bank predicts 0.5% to 1.5% growth in 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions about IMF cuts Russia's 2026 growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8%
1What is GDP?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total monetary value of all goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period, used as a broad measure of overall economic activity.
2What is economic growth?
Economic growth refers to the increase in the production of goods and services in an economy over a period of time, typically measured as the percentage increase in real GDP.
3What is the International Monetary Fund (IMF)?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an international organization that aims to promote global economic stability and growth by providing financial assistance and advice to member countries.
4What is a central bank?
A central bank is a national institution responsible for managing a country's currency, money supply, and interest rates, and often oversees the banking system to ensure financial stability.
