Heineken to sell less beer in 2025 as demand falters

By Emma Rumney

LONDON (Reuters) -Dutch brewer Heineken warned on Wednesday its 2025 beer sales would fall as macroeconomic challenges worsened, further downgrading its volume guidance from the previous quarter for which it was punished.

The world's No. 2 brewer and its rivals have been battling to restore lacklustre volume growth for years. While brewers have largely been able to offset declines with price increases, investors are increasingly focused on the amount of beer sold.

Heineken's shares slid more than 8% in July when it warned that annual volumes would be broadly stable, rather than grow. On Wednesday, it said it expected volume to "decline modestly" in 2025.

Annual organic operating profit would also be at the lower end of its previously forecast 4% to 8% range, the brewer said.

CEO Dolf van den Brink said macroeconomic volatility had become more pronounced in the third quarter. 

"We expect demand to recover when conditions normalise," he said in a statement. 

Analysts already expected annual profits to rise 3.9%, and for volumes to decline by 1.8%, according to a company-compiled consensus.

As a result, Heineken's full-year commentary may be welcomed, said Laurence Whyatt, analyst at Barclays.

"All the negative stuff was expected. And in fact, it was expected to be worse," he said.

Heineken shares rose almost 1% in early trade.

Brewers across the spectrum face long-term sales declines in some markets due to rising health concerns and disruptions from beer alternatives or even the emergence of weight-loss drugs.

But Heineken said its key challenges in the quarter, including weak demand for beers in Latin America and Europe, were short-term in nature.

Consumer sentiment has been rocked by trade tensions in key markets such as Brazil, where shipment volume in percentage terms contracted in the mid-teens, and Heineken has struggled to regain lost shelf space in its home region after a pricing dispute with retailers.

But it also reported market share gains in Brazil and Mexico, and a strong showing in previously difficult markets such as Vietnam.

The company reported a 0.3% decline in third-quarter net revenues, just beating analyst expectations for a 0.8% dip. Its 4.3% volume decline was broadly in line with forecasts. 

(Reporting by Emma Rumney; Editing by Tom Hogue, Kate Mayberry and Muralikumar Anantharaman)