US dollar slips as trade optimism boosts risk appetite

By Karen Brettell

(Reuters) -The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro, Chinese yuan and Australian dollar on Monday as optimism over a possible U.S.-China trade deal boosted risk appetite and reduced demand for the greenback.

Overall moves in the currency markets were relatively muted as traders also waited on several key central bank meetings this week.

President Donald Trump said on Monday the United States and China were set to "come away" with a trade deal. Trump is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this week in South Korea. 

"The market's kind of euphoric," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York, noting strong gains in global stock markets. 

The markets are cheered by three main developments, Chandler said. 

"It looks like the U.S. and China moved away from the brink. The U.S. struck foreign trade deals or frameworks with some East Asian countries, and Milei did better in Argentina," Chandler said.

Argentine President Javier Milei's party cruised to victory in midterm legislative elections as voters handed him a mandate to keep pushing through his overhaul of the economy.

The dollar index was last down 0.06% at 98.87, with the euro up 0.13% at $1.164.

Central banks may dominate market direction later this week, with the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada expected to cut rates on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan on Thursday are likely to leave rates unchanged.

With a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut long priced in, markets will closely watch for any signs that the central bank may be preparing to wind down its quantitative tightening program (QT).

The Chinese yuan was also boosted by the People's Bank of China setting the official yuan midpoint rate higher than expected. Prior to the market open, it set the official yuan midpoint rate at 7.0881 per dollar, the strongest since October 15, 2024, and above a Reuters estimate of 7.1146.

Chris Turner, global head of forex research at ING, said in a report that the move may be a gesture of goodwill ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting, or a sign that China wants to boost its domestic demand.

"Either way, a stronger renminbi is normally supportive for global EM (emerging market) currencies and a mild dollar negative," Turner said.

The Chinese offshore yuan rose to a more than one-month high against the dollar of 7.1015.

The Australian dollar was last up 0.55% versus the greenback at $0.6549. The Australian currency was also boosted by relatively hawkish comments from the country's central bank head. 

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said on Monday a rise in core inflation of 0.9% in the third quarter would be a "material miss" to forecasts that would have to be weighed by the board when judging whether to cut interest rates next week.

Traders are also focused on a meeting on Tuesday between Trump and Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, where the two leaders will discuss trade issues.

The Japanese currency has weakened in recent weeks on concerns that Takaichi will implement more expansionary policies.  

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was last up 0.12% at 153.03 yen.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 1.20% to $114,750.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo. Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Mark Potter, Will Dunham and Andrew Heavens)