Finance
Germany's Merz Faces First State Election Test
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 6, 2026
3 min readLast updated: April 1, 2026
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Chancellor Merz’s CDU faces its first electoral test in Baden‑Württemberg on March 8, 2026, where polls show a tight race between the CDU’s Manuel Hagel and the Greens’ Cem Özdemir, with the AfD also maintaining strong support.
Merz Faces Crucial Baden-Wuerttemberg Election in First Leadership Test
Key Issues and Political Dynamics in the Baden-Wuerttemberg Election
By James Mackenzie
Background: Merz’s First Electoral Test
BERLIN, March 6 (Reuters) - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces his first electoral test since taking office last May on Sunday, when voters go to the polls in the south-western state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, offering his party a chance to reclaim dominance.
There will be four more state elections this year.
Baden-Wuerttemberg’s Political Landscape
Baden-Wuerttemberg, home to Mercedes-Benz and a historic centre of Germany's car industry, was for years a stronghold of Merz's conservatives. But for the past decade, his Christian Democrats (CDU) have been the junior partner in a Greens-led coalition there.
CDU vs. Greens: The Battle for Premiership
Opinion polls suggest the partnership will continue, although it is unclear whether the CDU's candidate - 37-year-old newcomer Manuel Hagel - or the more experienced Cem Ozdemir from the Greens will come out on top to replace the popular Green premier, Winfried Kretschmann.
With the latest poll for the broadcaster ZDF putting the two neck-and-neck on 28% support, a victory for the Greens could stir internal party discontent with Merz, whose own ratings have hit record lows.
Potential Impact on Federal Politics
Still, moderate former agriculture minister Ozdemir would be unlikely to cause serious problems for the government in the Bundesrat, the upper house of parliament that represents the states.
Far-Right and Far-Left Parties: Shifting Support
Far-Right AfD Maintains Strong Support
FAR-RIGHT AFD MAINTAINS STRONG SUPPORT
Aside from the choice of premier, there will be close attention to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has been polling at around 20%, maintaining the strong gains it has made across Germany in recent years.
Merz has ruled out any cooperation with the AfD, whose support in Baden-Wuerttemberg - one of Germany's most prosperous regions - has been boosted by a crisis in the country's car industry.
Other Parties and Political Shifts
Also underlining the ongoing transformation in German politics is the possibility that the far-left Left Party will pass the threshold to enter state parliament, and the shrivelling in support for the centre-left Social Democrats to single figures in recent polls.
External Factors Influencing the Election
Overshadowing the election is the uncertainty caused by the U.S.-led conflict with Iran, which has already jacked up fuel prices and could stoke deeper economic problems if the war continues, although there is little sign of any direct impact on the vote.
"Voters are smart, they know that in Baden-Wuerttemberg, it's about state political issues," said Manfred Guellner, head of the polling group Forsa.
Upcoming Elections in Germany
The Baden-Wuerttemberg election will be followed by a vote in the neighbouring state of Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22, then by ballots in Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in September.
(Reporting by James Mackenzie, editing by Andrei Khalip)
Key Takeaways
- •Manuel Hagel, 37, is the CDU’s newcomer candidate aiming to succeed outgoing Green premier Winfried Kretschmann. He was overwhelmingly nominated with 93.8% support in May 2025 (en.wikipedia.org).
- •Recent polls show a tight contest: a Forschungsgruppe Wahlen survey (Feb 26–27, 2026) puts the CDU at 27%, Greens at 25%, and AfD at 19% (politpro.eu).
- •ZDF’s March 2026 Politbarometer indicates Özdemir leads in preferred premier with 47% versus Hagel’s 24%, though the AfD remains a significant factor (presseportal.zdf.de).
References
Frequently Asked Questions about Germany's Merz faces first state election test
1Why was the Baden‑Württemberg state election viewed as Friedrich Merz’s first electoral test?
The election on March 8, 2026, was the first major vote since Chancellor Friedrich Merz took office in May 2025, serving as a barometer of public approval of his federal government’s performance (ifri.org).
2What were the main results of the Baden‑Württemberg election?
The Greens narrowly won with 30.2% compared to the CDU’s 29.7%, both securing 56 seats. The AfD achieved 18.8%, while the SPD collapsed to a record low of 5.5%, and the FDP failed to cross the 5% threshold (en.wikipedia.org).
3Who are the leading candidates in the election and what was their significance?
The CDU fielded newcomer Manuel Hagel (37), nominated in May 2025 with strong party backing, although he lacked broad public recognition. The Greens ran Cem Özdemir (60), a nationally known former agriculture minister; his popularity helped the Greens overtake the CDU during the campaign (en.wikipedia.org).
4What implications does the result have for the state government and future coalition?
Despite the narrow Green victory, both the Greens and CDU are expected to continue their long-standing coalition. Cem Özdemir is likely to become Minister‑President, potentially becoming Baden‑Württemberg’s first state leader of Turkish heritage (en.wikipedia.org).
5What broader political dynamics did this election highlight?
The results underscored the rise of the far‑right AfD in prosperous regions, with nearly doubling its vote share. It also reflected the SPD’s continued decline and signalled potential pressure on Merz’s federal government amid geopolitical instability and economic concerns, though voters remained focused on state-level issues (en.wikipedia.org).