Germany's merz faces first state election test

Merz Faces Crucial Baden-Wuerttemberg Election in First Leadership Test

Key Issues and Political Dynamics in the Baden-Wuerttemberg Election

By James Mackenzie

Background: Merz’s First Electoral Test

BERLIN, March 6 (Reuters) - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces his first electoral test since taking office last May on Sunday, when voters go to the polls in the south-western state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, offering his party a chance to reclaim dominance.

There will be four more state elections this year.

Baden-Wuerttemberg’s Political Landscape

Baden-Wuerttemberg, home to Mercedes-Benz and a historic centre of Germany's car industry, was for years a stronghold of Merz's conservatives. But for the past decade, his Christian Democrats (CDU) have been the junior partner in a Greens-led coalition there.

CDU vs. Greens: The Battle for Premiership

Opinion polls suggest the partnership will continue, although it is unclear whether the CDU's candidate - 37-year-old newcomer Manuel Hagel - or the more experienced Cem Ozdemir from the Greens will come out on top to replace the popular Green premier, Winfried Kretschmann.

With the latest poll for the broadcaster ZDF putting the two neck-and-neck on 28% support, a victory for the Greens could stir internal party discontent with Merz, whose own ratings have hit record lows.

Potential Impact on Federal Politics

Still, moderate former agriculture minister Ozdemir  would be unlikely to cause serious problems for the government in the Bundesrat, the upper house of parliament that represents the states.

Far-Right and Far-Left Parties: Shifting Support

Far-Right AfD Maintains Strong Support

FAR-RIGHT AFD MAINTAINS STRONG SUPPORT

Aside from the choice of premier, there will be close attention to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has been polling at around 20%, maintaining the strong gains it has made across Germany in recent years.

Merz has ruled out any cooperation with the AfD, whose support in Baden-Wuerttemberg - one of Germany's most prosperous regions - has been boosted by a crisis in the country's car industry.

Other Parties and Political Shifts

Also underlining the ongoing transformation in German politics is the possibility that the far-left Left Party will pass the threshold to enter state parliament, and the shrivelling in support for the centre-left Social Democrats to single figures in recent polls.

External Factors Influencing the Election

Overshadowing the election is the uncertainty caused by the U.S.-led conflict with Iran, which has already jacked up fuel prices and could stoke deeper economic problems if the war continues, although there is little sign of any direct impact on the vote.

"Voters are smart, they know that in Baden-Wuerttemberg, it's about state political issues," said Manfred Guellner, head of the polling group Forsa.

Upcoming Elections in Germany

The Baden-Wuerttemberg election will be followed by a vote in the neighbouring state of Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22, then by ballots in Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in September.

(Reporting by James Mackenzie, editing by Andrei Khalip)