Finance
German intelligence accuses Russia of hiding true economic cost of war
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 4, 2026
2 min readLast updated: March 4, 2026
Global Banking & Finance Review®
Company
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 4, 2026
2 min readLast updated: March 4, 2026
Germany’s BND warns Russia significantly understated its 2025 war costs, estimating the federal budget deficit at 8.01 trillion roubles—about 2.36 trillion roubles more than reported—amid plunging oil revenues and ramped-up military spending.
BERLIN, March 4 (Reuters) - Germany's intelligence service on Wednesday accused Moscow of hiding the true cost of the war in Ukraine, saying Russia's budget deficit in 2025 was more than 2.36 trillion roubles ($30.45 billion) higher than officially stated.
In a post on LinkedIn, the BND said Western sanctions were having a "clear effect" on the Russian economy, alongside significantly lower oil and gas revenues due to a sharp fall in global prices.
"Putin is sacrificing Russia's economic future for his imperial goals," the intelligence service said.
The Kremlin last week said falling revenues and a growing budget deficit were "routine difficulties" and fixable thanks to overall macroeconomic stability.
Russian revenues from sales of oil, its main export commodity, have fallen because Moscow has been forced to sell it at a greater discount on global markets due to Western sanctions and U.S. pressure on major buyers.
The BND put Russia's federal budget deficit at 8.01 trillion roubles compared to the official figure of 5.65 trillion that equates to 2.6% of GDP. It did not divulge detailed calculations on how it arrived at the precise figure, and did not immediately reply to a request for further comment.
Russia's consolidated budget deficit, which includes regional budgets, substantially deteriorated in 2025, reaching 8.3 trillion roubles or 3.9% of GDP, 2.6-fold more than in 2024 due to falling revenues and increased expenditure.
The Finance Ministry has not commented on BND's allegations.
A source close to the Russian government had told Reuters in February that Russia's budget situation was sharply deteriorating.
Global oil prices have rallied in the wake of U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran, but the rise still falls short of what is needed to balance the Russian budget, according to Reuters calculations.
($1 = 77.5000 roubles)
(Reporting by Andreas Rinke and Sabine Siebold; Writing by Kirsti Knolle and Matthias Williams; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Philippa Fletcher)
German intelligence claims Russia's actual 2025 budget deficit is over 2.36 trillion roubles ($30.45 billion) higher than official figures.
Sanctions have led to significantly lower oil and gas revenues, increasing Russia's budget deficit and economic strain.
Russia's oil revenues have dropped due to forced discounts in global markets driven by Western sanctions and U.S. pressure.
The official Russian budget deficit is 5.65 trillion roubles, while German intelligence estimates it at 8.01 trillion roubles.
As of now, Russia's Finance Ministry has not commented on the German intelligence service's allegations.
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