Unexpected Decline in German Exports Amid Rising Industrial Output

Overview of German Trade and Industry

By Maria Martinez

Export and Import Trends

BERLIN, Jan 9 (Reuters) - German exports unexpectedly fell in November as shipments to other European Union countries and the U.S. dropped, while industrial output rose despite expectations for a decline, official data showed on Friday.

Industrial Production Insights

Exports from Europe's biggest economy fell by 2.5% in November compared with the previous month, according to the federal statistics office. 

Analyst Predictions

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected no change. 

Future Economic Outlook

Imports were up 0.8% on a calendar- and seasonally-adjusted basis.

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 13.1 billion euros ($15.26 billion) in November 2025, down from 17.2 billion euros in October and 20.0 billion euros in November 2024.

EXPORTS TO THE US FALL, IMPORTS FROM CHINA UP

Exports to the U.S. and EU countries both dropped by 4.2% on the month, while exports to countries outside the bloc declined by 0.2%.

Compared with November 2024, U.S. exports were down 22.9% on a calendar- and seasonally-adjusted basis.

The U.S. administration imposed a 15% import tariff on most goods from the EU under a deal reached with the 27-nation bloc in July.

Imports from China rose 8.0% compared with the previous month.

The influx of imports has gathered momentum since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on China.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UNEXPECTEDLY RISES    

German industrial production unexpectedly rose in November, growing by 0.8% from October, the federal statistics office also reported on Friday.

Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 0.4% fall.

German industrial orders climbed 5.6% on the previous month in November, driven by large-scale orders, data showed on Thursday.

Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, said the data confirmed that conditions in German industry improved towards the end of last year, but did not expect that upturn to last.

"Given the significant structural headwinds facing the sector, we doubt this is the start of a sustained recovery and still expect German industrial output to decline in the medium term," Palmas said.

($1 = 0.8585 euros)

(Additional reporting by Anastasiia Kozlova, Emanuele Berro and Bernadette Hogg in GdanskEditing by Miranda Murray and Tomasz Janowski)