From Money Printing to Market Surge: The Macro Forces Driving Crypto in 2026

“The views and forecasts discussed in this article reflect opinions expressed by Raoul Pal and other market commentators and do not represent independent analysis by the publisher.”

Following Bitcoin’s recent sharp pullback, skepticism has re-entered the cryptocurrency markets. Calls for a renewed bear market, multi-year downturns, and cycle failure have dominated sentiment. But at Binance Blockchain Week 2025, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal delivered one of the most forceful macro rebuttals of the year. “This is not the start of a bear market,” Pal argued during a fast-paced macro discussion with Coin Bureau CEO Nic Puckrin. “It’s a correction inside an ongoing bull market.”

Pal’s confidence is rooted not in technical charts or cycle mythology, but in global liquidity. He argues that cryptocurrency could be approaching a liquidity-driven supercycle in 2026, fueled by fiscal stimulus, regulatory-driven money creation, banking balance sheet expansion, and a weakening U.S. dollar.

Crucially, he believes that many of these forces begin to activate as early as January 2026.

Liquidity, Not Halving or Other Factors, Drive the Bitcoin Market

At the core of Pal’s suggestion is a blunt rejection of crypto’s most popular narrative. “Liquidity drives this market — not the four-year halving myth,” according to Pal. “This cycle handed down from Satoshi isn’t some law of nature.”

According to Pal’s framework, Bitcoin behaves more like a macro liquidity proxy than a technology stock. When global money expands, Bitcoin rises. When liquidity tightens, Bitcoin falls. From that perspective, today’s setup looks increasingly constructive.

As 2025 gives way to 2026, several factors are converging. A U.S. fiscal stimulus program, regulatory-driven money creation, changes to bank leverage rules, a weaker U.S. dollar, and term repo facilities all point to increased liquidity. According to Pal, this “liquidity creation” is “fuel” for the market.

Pal isn’t the only crypto market expert laying out a bullish scenario for Bitcoin's future. According to Greyscale’s latest macro outlook, the asset manager also suggests that a crypto winter isn’t imminent. Instead, pointing to factors such as controlled price action, as well as a lower level of retail investor speculation, and liquidity factors akin to those Pal pointed out, better times may lie ahead for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the coming year.

Altcoin Season Could be Fast Approaching

The latest bull run for Bitcoin may have come and gone without a true Altcoin season, but regarding this, Pal has another substantive explanation, one that is macroeconomic in nature.

According to Pal, Altcoins behave more like small-cap equities, moving in tandem with the business cycle. “When ISM breaks above 50 to the upside,” Pal said, “risk appetite explodes. Capital rotates aggressively down the crypto risk curve. Bitcoin dominance collapses, and smart-contract platforms take over. That’s the start of altseason.”

That turn, he believes, could be triggered by the same liquidity forces now forming the backbone of his 2026 thesis. Pal also addressed skepticism that the explosive performance of AI equities, such as Nvidia, could overshadow the crypto sector. “Institutions already own AI,” he suggested. “Retail chases asymmetric upside. If Bitcoin can achieve 2x growth, an altcoin can potentially achieve 10x growth. Retail will always chase that.”

When it comes to ways to capitalize on a forthcoming “Altcoin season,” Pal suggested the following. First, focus primarily on major Layer-1 cryptos like Ethereum and Solana. Second, to analyze a particular Altcoin, use real-world metrics such as active users and transaction volume; do not base it on hope and hype. Third, benchmark it all against Solana. Do otherwise, and “you are destroying capital.”

The Bottom Line: Don’t Mess This Up

What emerges from the discussion around 2026 is not a denial of volatility or risk, but a reframing of how crypto markets should be understood at scale. The sharp pullbacks and sentiment swings that continue to characterize Bitcoin are not evidence of structural weakness, but rather a feature of an asset increasingly integrated into global liquidity cycles. As Raoul Pal and others argue, Bitcoin is no longer best analyzed as a self-contained experiment governed by deterministic halving narratives, but as a macro-sensitive asset responding to the same forces that shape equities, credit, and currencies.

The convergence of fiscal expansion, regulatory-driven money creation, easing bank balance-sheet constraints, and a softening dollar suggests that liquidity conditions may turn meaningfully more supportive as 2026 approaches. If that occurs, crypto markets are likely to benefit not because of renewed speculation, but because they sit downstream from these capital flows. Bitcoin, in this framework, functions as the first and most direct expression of global liquidity expansion, with broader crypto assets responding only once risk appetite follows.

At the same time, this cycle appears fundamentally different from those that came before. Retail excess has been muted, institutional participation has grown more methodical, and market structure has matured through ETFs, custody, and regulated access points. That does not eliminate downside risk, but it does suggest that future advances may be more sustained and less reflexive than prior boom-and-bust episodes.

Whether 2026 ultimately delivers the full liquidity-driven expansion Pal anticipates remains uncertain. Macro conditions can shift quickly, policy assumptions can change, and correlations across risk assets are rarely static. Still, the weight of evidence points toward a market increasingly governed by capital availability rather than narrative momentum. If crypto does enter another expansion phase, it is likely to be one shaped less by myth and mania, and more by the same macro forces now driving global financial markets.

In that sense, the real takeaway is not a prediction, but a framework. Investors who approach the next phase of crypto with discipline, patience, and an understanding of liquidity dynamics may find that the most important shift underway is not just in price, but in how crypto fits into the broader financial system itself.

Disclaimer: “This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and involve risk, including the risk of loss.”