Analysis-Macron's legacy evaporates as France's political and fiscal woes mount

By Michel Rose

PARIS (Reuters) -In a 2018 interview with Fox News ahead of his first state visit to the United States, a fresh-faced President Emmanuel Macron was asked whether he might back down on reforms amid fierce domestic opposition.

"No. Chance," Macron replied, separating each word for emphasis.

Fast forward to 2025: a politically cornered Macron, under siege from a resurgent parliamentary opposition, has been forced to shelve the only major economic reform of his second term - a totemic pension overhaul pushed through at great political cost.

END OF MACRONISM?

For months, as France faced its worst political crisis in decades, Macron rejected leftist demands to shelve the reform.

His painful concession, delaying the reform until after the 2027 presidential election, was made as a last-ditch attempt to prevent the collapse of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's weak minority government. It underlines the gravity of the problems facing a deeply unpopular president polling at just 14%. 

It also marks the collapse of Macron's reformist push to modernise France - and perhaps even the end of Macronism itself, nearly two years before he is due to step down.

"Backing down on the one and only major societal reform since his re-election - if it's not a final blow, it's at least a clear sign the president has stopped making his mark," said analyst Stewart Chau at research agency Verian.

MOOD IS GRIM IN MACRON'S CAMP

Supporters say the suspension, which leaves in place a partial increase of the minimum retirement age by nine months that took effect on October 1, was a necessary compromise to restore stability after months of political turmoil.

In the shorter term, Macron's concession has bought him time. Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes on Thursday, and the possibility of an early election now appears more remote.

But the long-term damage is clear. National auditors say the freeze will blow a 13 billion euro ($15.16 billion) annual hole in the public finances by 2035 if it's not undone after 2027.

Given the widespread hostility towards the reform, it is unclear whether any potential Macron successor will campaign on restoring the measure, leaving its long-term future in doubt.

The mood among Macron's allies was grim after the climb-down. 

"It's a bitter pill to swallow, but we had to swallow it," said Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade, a lawmaker in Macron's party.

Some Macronists say they'll vote against the suspension - knowing it will pass - to avoid looking like they have betrayed their principles.

"I'm deeply concerned that, in our rush to exit the crisis, we're sacrificing the only structural reform that truly matters for the future," lawmaker Olivia Gregoire, a former Macron minister, told Reuters. 

Macron built his political brand on being the bold reformer France had long lacked - a leader unafraid to defy street protests and vested interests to modernise a sluggish economy.

He portrayed himself as the president who would do what others wouldn't: push through painful but necessary changes that previous governments had dodged, mocking past presidents as "do-nothings" in a 2017 speech.

His first term delivered on that promise with a blitz of reforms: scrapping the wealth tax, loosening rigid labour laws, and slashing housing benefits. Macron bulldozed ahead, brushing off mass protests and leaving a fractured opposition scrambling in his wake, thanks to a strong majority in parliament.

LONG UNRAVELLING

Things started to unravel when he lost his majority after his 2022 re-election.

The pension reform he campaigned on, which increased the minimum retirement age to 64 from 62, had to be rammed through parliament without a vote, sparking violent protests.

His failed gamble to call early elections last year sealed the fate of his domestic agenda, setting the stage for the current debacle.

With a hung parliament split into three ideologically opposed blocs, Macron became dependent on either the far-right or the left to govern. 

The Socialists, who gained leverage after the far-right said it would vote against the government no matter what, demanded a high-profile concession to reclaim leadership on the left from the more radical France Unbowed - and they got it.

The pension retreat is unlikely to satisfy them for long.

The suspension doesn't guarantee support for the rest of Lecornu's draft budget - especially the belt-tightening measures aimed at bringing France's budget deficit below 5%.

"We have made no commitments on the budget," Socialist leader Boris Vallaud said on Wednesday.

That means other planks of Macron's legacy might come under pressure, especially his tax cuts for the wealthy.

When asked what will remain of Macron's legacy, his entourage now point only to his international impact.

"Pension reforms are never what is put to a president's credit. What we remember presidents for is how they handled crises," one close ally said. "Rearming Europe, Palestinian recognition. Maybe tomorrow there'll be other conquests."

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(Reporting by Michel RoseEditing by Gabriel Stargardter and Gareth Jones)