What’s at Stake in Armenia’s Pivotal 2024 Parliamentary Election?
By Lucy Papachristou
May 19 (Reuters) - Armenia holds a parliamentary election on June 7 that pits the governing Civil Contract party, which is pursuing closer ties with the West, against an array of opposition parties, many of which are pro-Russian.
Opinion polls and analysts predict that Civil Contract, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, will emerge as the largest party but will likely fall short of the two-thirds majority needed to make changes to the constitution.
Main Issues and Dynamics in the 2024 Armenian Election
Here's what to look out for:
Referendum on Peace Deal
Civil Contract’s Peace Initiatives
* Civil Contract, in power since 2018, has spent much of the pre-election period touting its progress towards a peace deal with Azerbaijan after Pashinyan signed an initial agreement with Baku at the White House last August.
Background: Armenia and Azerbaijan Conflict
* A landlocked country of around 3 million, Armenia has been at war off and on with Azerbaijan since the late 1980s, mostly over the mountainous territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
* Baku retook full control of Karabakh in a lightning offensive in 2023, causing nearly all of the region's 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee to Armenia.
Pro-Russian Opposition
Key Opposition Parties and Leaders
* Armenia's opposition is dominated by pro-Russian groups, several of which are tied to unpopular former presidents.
* The biggest challenger is the Strong Armenia party, led by an Armenian-Russian billionaire who is currently on trial for making calls to overthrow the government.
Opposition’s Platform and Criticisms
* Strong Armenia is running on a pro-business platform and has accused Pashinyan of attempting to stoke war with Moscow.
Changing Ties with Russia
Strained Relations and Economic Dependence
* Relations with Russia have frayed since 2023, when Azerbaijan retook Karabakh despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers.
* Armenia is a member of a Russian-led economic union and fully decoupling from Moscow, a major trading partner, would be difficult. The country is also heavily dependent on Russia and neighbouring Iran for energy supplies and hosts a large Russian military base.
Russian Response and Disinformation Concerns
* Russia has expressed displeasure with Armenia's westward pivot, saying it could spell "negative political and economic consequences" for Yerevan.
* Armenian civil society groups have raised alarm over what they say are Russian state-sponsored disinformation efforts in the lead-up to the election. Moscow routinely denies it meddles in other countries' internal affairs.
Warming to the West
EU Accession and Western Partnerships
* Armenia last year adopted a law to launch its European Union accession process, and Pashinyan has sought to project Armenia as a key partner for Europe in the South Caucasus.
Strategic Projects and U.S. Cooperation
* Part of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement sees a proposed transit corridor built across Armenian territory to better connect Asia to Europe while bypassing Russia.
* An agreement signed with U.S. Vice President JD Vance during a visit this year to Yerevan could pave the way for an American company to build a new nuclear reactor in Armenia.
Normalisation with Azerbaijan and Turkey
Peace Process with Azerbaijan
* Yerevan and Baku reached a U.S.-brokered peace agreement in August but have yet to sign a formal deal. Azerbaijan is demanding Armenia first change some wording in its constitution, which Yerevan says it is willing to do. A constitutional referendum is possible after the election.
Relations and Trade with Turkey
* Armenia's borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey have been closed for decades, with the latter shuttering its frontier in 1993 in solidarity with its key ally Baku over the Karabakh issue.
* Progress has been made recently towards normalisation with Ankara, including in trade, but in general the process has been slow.
Reporting and Editing
(Reporting by Lucy Papachristou in Tbilisi; Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Alex Richardson)
