Finance
Explainer-Why Japan's Takaichi is gambling on an early election
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on January 14, 2026
Global Banking and Finance Review
Company
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on January 14, 2026
By Tim Kelly
TOKYO, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to dissolve parliament's lower house next week, triggering a national election to decide all 465 seats in her first major election test since taking office in October.
She will announce details of the election on Monday, ruling Liberal Democratic Party Secretary-General Shunichi Suzuki said.
WHY CALL AN ELECTION NOW?
Japan's first female premier inherited a battered government, with the LDP having lost its majority in both houses of parliament after disgruntled voters punished it over rising prices and a funding scandal.
By calling a snap election now, she hopes to capitalise on a surge in public support for a new leader who has promised to spur economic growth, tackle cost-of-living concerns and tighten immigration rules.
Some media polls have put the LDP's support at more than 60%, giving Takaichi an opportunity to restore its majority in the more powerful lower chamber.
A poll of 1,213 people published by public broadcaster NHK on January 13 showed she had the backing of 62% of voters.
Even if she bags a lower-house majority, however, Takaichi will still have to govern with a minority in the upper house, which she cannot dissolve. Voters elect half of its members every three years and the next election is not due until 2028.
WHAT WOULD A STRONG RESULT DELIVER?
A decisive victory would strengthen her hand within the LDP and reduce her reliance on smaller political parties to pass key legislation.
That, in turn, could allow her to push ahead with plans to boost government spending to revive economic growth and sharply increase defence outlays under a revised national security strategy amid heightened tension with Japan's powerful neighbour China.
The shift could mark a further step from Japan’s post-war pacifist constraints, including a long-standing principle that bars nuclear weapons from the country's territory.
With prices still rising and the yen's value against the U.S. dollar sliding, the cost of living is likely to dominate the election campaign. In the NHK poll 45% of respondents said that was their main concern, followed by diplomacy and national security at 16%.
Her government has proposed record spending of $770 billion for the next fiscal year, a move that has unnerved investors in one of the world's most indebted industrial economies.
WHAT'S UP FOR GRABS?
All 465 seats in the lower house will be contested, 289 in single-member districts and 176 through proportional representation. A simple majority requires 233 seats.
The LDP currently controls 199 seats in the chamber and governs with the support of its coalition partner the Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin, which has 34 seats.
The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), has 148 seats in the house, followed by the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) with 27. Komeito, which quit its 26-year coalition with the LDP after Takaichi became leader, has 24 seats.
Attention may also focus on how Takaichi fares against the far-right Sanseito Party, whose calls for tighter immigration controls siphoned votes from the LDP in last July's upper house election, where it won 14 seats.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
By dissolving the lower house on January 23, Takaichi will trigger an official campaign period of around two weeks before voting day. If the LDP and Ishin secure a majority, she would be confirmed as prime minister in a special parliamentary session.
If not, she may be forced to seek new coalition partners or the support of other smaller parties, a setback that would weaken her authority.
($1 = 158.7900 yen)
(Reporting by Tim KellyEditing by Gareth Jones)
Economic growth is an increase in the production of goods and services in an economy over a period of time, often measured by GDP.
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