EU in stagflationary trend, must not risk fiscal crisis, ministers say
Stagflation, Fiscal Policy, and EU Economic Outlook
By Jan Strupczewski and Francesco Canepa
Stagflationary Pressures and Economic Forecasts
NICOSIA, May 22 (Reuters) - Europe's economy is in a stagflationary trend due to the surge in energy prices caused by the Iran war, but governments must be wary that generous fiscal support could risk a fiscal crisis or higher ECB rates, top EU officials said on Friday.
The European Commission forecast on Thursday that euro zone economic growth will slow to 0.9% in 2026 from 1.3% in 2025 and inflation will jump to 3.0% from 1.9%, well above the European Central Bank's target of 2.0%.
"There is stagflationary pressure, but Europe is resilient," the chairman of euro zone finance ministers Kyriakos Pierrakakis said.
Investor Concerns and Bond Yields
Investors have started worrying that the war in Iran may cause a lasting inflationary shock and yields of government bonds rose to decade highs, threatening a severe hit to the spending power of governments, businesses and households.
ECB and Fiscal Policy Coordination
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told ministers that if they loosen fiscal policy too much to cushion the impact of the energy prices, the ECB would react with higher interest rates.
"We discussed the fiscal response to the energy price shock, and I underlined that fiscal measures should... (be) temporary, targeted and tailored," Lagarde told reporters after the talks.
"Any deviation from those three principles would actually hurt and lead to a different monetary policy stance as a result," she said.
Pierrakakis said ministers got the message.
"We certainly all understand that we shouldn't contradict monetary policy. Fiscal policy and monetary policy should go hand in hand," Pierrakakis told a news conference.
Government Responses and Policy Recommendations
Targeted Fiscal Measures
GOVERNMENTS NEED TARGETED MEASURES
The European Commission called on governments to only use targeted and temporary fiscal support for the most vulnerable groups, but many countries, wary of voter displeasure, have already put in place measures like excise tax cuts on petrol, that are the same for all citizens.
"In terms of policy response we recommend to stick to temporary and targeted measures, not to sustain and drive up demand for fossil fuels in view of the limited fiscal space," European Economic Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said.
Debate on Fiscal Exemptions
Fuel Price Support and Deficit Calculations
Some governments, like Italy, are pushing for the European Commission to exclude government fiscal support to fuel prices from EU deficit calculations, similarly to spending on defence, but neither the Commission nor most finance ministers want that.
"I know some countries are proposing this, but opening a general escape clause is difficult because this is a supply crisis, rather than a demand one," Belgian Finance Minister Vincent van Peteghem told reporters.
(Reporting by Jan Strupczewski; Editing Chiara Rodriquez)
