Explainer-Europe's carmakers look to overturn 2035 combustion engine ban

Dec 15 (Reuters) - Europe's ‌embattled carmakers are hoping for a reprieve when Brussels unveils an auto sector package on Tuesday, which could water down an effective ‍ban on ‌new combustion engines initially slated for 2035 as a shift towards electric engines stutters.

The continent's automakers from Volkswagen to Renault had high hopes for ⁠the electric vehicle shift when they set ambitious targets at the beginning ‌of the decade, efforts that have since collided with the reality of lower-than-expected demand and fierce competition from China.

WHAT IS EXPECTED ON DECEMBER 16?

Brussels is set to unveil measures designed to support the regional auto industry, one of the EU's most important sectors, in the face of high energy costs, tariffs on exports to the U.S., and ⁠Asian rivals eating into the bloc's market.

Senior EU lawmaker Manfred Weber, president of the largest party in the European Parliament, the EPP, said on December 12 that the European Commission would ​move to scrap plans for an effective ban on new combustion engine cars from 2035.

German ‌automakers and the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association have called for a ⁠weakening of rules designed to boost battery or fuel-cell electric drive cars, while Fiat-to-Maserati owner Stellantis has warned the industry risks an "irreversible decline" without help.

The regulation that all new vehicles from 2035 should have zero emissions was adopted in March 2023 when the outlook for battery electric ​vehicles was brighter.

The industry is now pushing for concessions. It hopes the European Commission will accept that CO2-neutral fuels, such as biofuels, could continue to power internal combustion engines, as well as plug-in hybrids or range extenders.

Automakers including Europe's biggest Volkswagen have argued that immovable targets no longer make sense, and that the market, rather than legislators, should decide when combustion engines are fully phased out. They favour instead incentives to boost demand for ​electric vehicles.

HOW IT ‍STARTED VS HOW IT'S GOING

Automaker Initial 2030 Current Ambition Battery

Ambition Electric

Vehicle

share ​of

total,

2025 (9

months)

Volkswagen - Six battery - Plans three 10.9%

Group factories in battery cell

Europe alone factories in

by 2030, 240 Europe and North

gigawatt hours America, with

of capacity  maximum capacity

- At least 70% of 200 GWh

of deliveries - No firm

in Europe forecast or EV

expected to be sales target

fully electric

by 2030

Porsche - More than - No specific EV 23.1%

80% of sales target

deliveries to

be fully

electric by

2030

BMW - Targets 50% - Remains 18%

of global committed to 50%

sales to be target,

fully electric dependent on

by 2030 market

- Interim conditions

goal: 25% BEV - 2025 BEV share

share by 2025 at the 2024

level (17.4%)

Mercedes-B - 100% EV - Expects at 8.8%

enz Group sales by 2030 least 50%

where market electrified

conditions (including

allow hybrids) by 2030

- Interim: 50% - Will keep

electrified combustion

(mostly EV) by engines well

2025 into the 2030s

Renault - 100% - Targets 100% 12.7%

Group electric as BEV share in

early as 2030 2035

Stellantis - Global BEV - Stellantis is 11.1% in

sales of five expected to Europe

million units review goals ⁠in

in 2030, Q2 2026 as part

reaching 100% of new business

of passenger plan

car sales in - Group no

Europe and 50% longer pursues

passenger cars goal of

and light-duty producing only

trucks in the electric

United States vehicles in

Europe by 2030,

former head of

Europe said in

September

Volvo Cars - To sell - Aims for 90- 20%

purely 100% of ​its

battery-powere global sales

d vehicles volume by 2030

from 2030 to consist of

onwards electrified

cars, meaning

mix of both

fully electric

and plug-in

hybrid models

WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG?

Demand is rising for EVs in Europe, but not at the pace carmakers had once planned for, with ACEA's data showing a market share of 16% for battery electric vehicles in the first 10 months of the year, up from 13% a year before.

Charging anxiety remains an issue ‌for consumers, with central and eastern Europe behind on infrastructure, while high electricity costs are a concern in Germany.

(Reporting by Christoph Steitz and Ilona Wissenbach in Frankfurt, Christina Amann and Rachel More in Berlin, Gilles Guillaume in Paris, Giulio Piovaccari in Milan and Philip Blenkinsop in Brussels. Editing by Jan Harvey)