Portugal's EDP to invest $14 billion through 2028 but earnings targets disappoint

By Sergio Goncalves

LISBON (Reuters) -Portugal's EDP said on Thursday it plans to invest 12 billion euros ($14 billion) between 2026 and 2028, mainly to expand its renewable energy capacity with a focus on the U.S., but its shares fell as profit targets undershot expectations.

In its strategic plan through 2028, Portugal's largest utility reiterated its recurring earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization target of around 4.9 billion euros for 2025, forecasting it at 4.9-5 billion euros in 2026 and about 5.2 billion by 2028.

It expects recurring net income of around 1.2 billion euros this year, between 1.2 billion and 1.3 billion euros in 2026, and roughly the same by 2028.

EDP shares dropped 6% in afternoon trading with analysts saying the targets were lower than their estimates.

JPMorgan analysts said that EBITDA and net income targets came in below their estimates, highlighting that they would be "achieved with larger net capex in networks" than it expected.

TAPPING INTO RISING POWER DEMAND SPURRED BY DATA CENTRES

EDP ​​said 7.5 billion euros of the targeted 12 billion would be invested by its renewables unit EDP Renovaveis - the world's fourth-largest wind energy producer - in wind, solar and battery energy storage systems, "of which around 60% are in the U.S.".

EDPR's capacity is expected to increase to 25 gigawatts by 2028 from 20 GW now.

EDP, which operates in 29 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia, ​​said the new plan was designed "in a context of increased demand for electricity, notably supported by increased data centre capacity in the U.S."

"There's a lot of potential we'll have to manage in the next couple of years," CEO Miguel Stilwell de Andrade told a conference call.

"After 2028, EDP continues to see increase in power demand, enabling accelerated growth in renewables, based on a diversified pipeline and also repricing upside from re-contracting our operational fleet in the U.S.," he added.

Another 3.6 billion euros would be channelled towards electricity networks, mainly in Portugal and Spain.

In the first nine months of 2025, EDP invested around 2.6 billion euros. Recurring net profit in that period was 974 million euros.

To fund part of the investment, EDP expects to cash in 5 billion euros from asset rotation - selling stakes in mature wind and solar parks to finance new ones - complemented by 1 billion euros in disposals of other assets by 2028.

It expects net debt to be steady at 16 billion euros through 2026, before falling to 15 billion euros by 2028.

($1 = 0.8575 euros)

(Reporting by Sergio Goncalves; Editing by David Latona and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)