Investing
Dollar stays resilient, Asia shares wobble
Global Banking & Finance Review®
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By Rae Wee
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Asia shares eased in holiday-thinned trade on Thursday, paring some of their gains from earlier in the week, while the dollar rose alongside U.S. Treasury yields.
As the year-end approaches, trading volumes have begun thinning out and the main focus for investors remains that of the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. Markets in Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand were closed for a holiday on Thursday.
Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell primed markets for fewer rate cuts next year at the central bank’s last policy meeting of the year, traders are now pricing in just about 35 basis points worth of easing for 2025.
That has in turn lifted U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, with the greenback’s renewed strength a burden for commodities and gold.
The benchmark 10-year yield ticked up 2.6 basis points to 4.613% and is up roughly 40 basis points for the month thus far. The two-year yield similarly firmed to 4.3489%. [US/]
“Given December’s hawkish cut, we believe the Fed will skip at the January FOMC meeting and wait for more data before definitely resuming, or potentially ending, this cutting cycle,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income.
“Given the Fed’s shift to less accommodation paired with continued focus on both sides of the dual mandate, we believe the market will have more intense emphasis on economic events in the new year.”
In currencies, the dollar was perched near a two-year high against a basket of currencies at 108.15 and was on track for a monthly gain of more than 2%.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars were, meanwhile, among the biggest losers against a dominant greenback on Thursday, with the Aussie falling 0.5% to $0.6238. The kiwi slid 0.58% to $0.5646.
The euro eased 0.18% to $1.0399, while the yen languished near a five-month low and last stood at 157.35 per dollar.
Japan is set to raise scheduled sales of Japanese government bonds (JGB) slightly to 172.3 trillion yen ($1.1 trillion) next fiscal year, the first increase in four years, according to a draft plan seen by Reuters.
Yields on JGBs barely reacted to the news, but were similarly higher on the day in line with their U.S. peers. [JP/]
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.1% but was still headed for a weekly rise of about 1.6%, taking a cue from its counterparts on Wall Street earlier in the week.
S&P 500 futures edged 0.08% higher, while Nasdaq futures advanced 0.27%.
World stocks looked set to end the year on a high with a second consecutive annual gain of more than 17%, unfazed by escalating geopolitical tensions and various economic and political headwinds globally.
That is mostly thanks to a second year of huge gains for shares on Wall Street as artificial intelligence fever and robust economic growth sucked more global capital into U.S. assets.
“At first glance, markets appear to suggest exceptional exuberance has presided over 2024,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Bank.
“Notably, U.S. bulls high on American exceptionalism have not trampled on ebullience elsewhere.”
Japan’s Nikkei jumped 0.95% and was on track to end the year with an 18% gain. [.T]
China’s CSI300 blue-chip index ticked up 0.08%, while the Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.14%, with both headed for yearly gains of more than 10% each, helped by a step-up in support from Chinese authorities in recent months to shore up an ailing economy.
Elsewhere, bitcoin fell 0.37% to $98,071, extending its decline from a record high above $100,000 on the back of the Fed’s hawkish repricing.
Russian companies have begun using bitcoin and other digital currencies in international payments following legislative changes that allowed such use in order to counter Western sanctions, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday.
In commodities, Brent crude futures rose 0.08% to $73.64 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained 0.1% to $70.17 per barrel. [O/R]
Spot gold ticked 0.5% higher to $2,626.19 an ounce. [GOL/]
(Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Jamie Freed and Muralikumar Anantharaman)
The Federal Reserve, often referred to as the Fed, is the central bank of the United States, responsible for regulating the country's monetary policy and financial system.
Foreign exchange, or forex, is the global marketplace for trading national currencies against one another, influencing international trade and investment.
A currency basket is a grouping of selected currencies used to measure the value of a currency against a set of others, often used in economic analysis.
A commodity is a basic good used in commerce that is interchangeable with other goods of the same type, such as gold, oil, or agricultural products.
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