Dollar edges higher amid rate, political uncertainty

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY (Reuters) – The dollar crept higher on Monday in what is shaping up to be a critical week for the prospect of U.S. rate cuts, while the yen’s recent rebound was underpinned by wagers on rising rates at home.

The dollar also drew some verbal support from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump who on Saturday demanded that BRICS member countries commit to not creating a new currency or supporting another currency that could replace the dollar or face 100% tariffs.

Political uncertainty in France added to pressure on the euro which slipped 0.4% to $1.0532, after bouncing 1.5% last week and away from a one-year trough of $1.0425.

That saw the dollar index edge up to 106.170, having closed out November with a gain of 1.8% even after a setback last week.

“Given the continued resilience of the U.S. economy and a worsening outlook elsewhere, we don’t think this is the start of a deeper setback for the dollar,” said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics.

“But the bar for a further shift in expected interest rates in favour of the U.S. in the near term is quite high,” he added. “A period of consolidation into year-end looks to us like the most likely scenario, although the risks remain skewed in favour of the dollar over the course of 2025.”

Key to the outlook for rates will be the November payrolls report due Friday where median forecasts favour a rise of 195,000 following October’s weather and strike-hit report, which could also be revised given a low response rate for that survey.

The jobless rate is seen edging up to 4.2%, from 4.1%, which should keep the Federal Reserve on course to cut by 25 basis points on Dec. 18.

Markets imply a 65% chance of such an easing, though they also only have two more cuts priced in for all of 2025.

A host of Fed officials are due to speak this week, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, while other data include surveys of manufacturing and services.

YEN PARES GAINS

The dollar regained 0.4% on the yen to 150.37, having shed 3.3% last week in its worst run since July. Support lies around 149.40/47 with resistance at 150.45.

Over the weekend, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the next interest rate hikes are “nearing in the sense that economic data are on track,” following figures showing Tokyo inflation picked up in October.

Data out Monday showed business investment running at a healthy 8.1% clip in the third quarter, encouraging markets to price in a 63% chance the BOJ will hike by a quarter point to 0.5% at its policy meeting on Dec. 18-19.

Barclays economist Christian Keller said data on labour earnings this week should show a further pick up and all the signs were pointing to another strong “shunto” wage round in February.

“The wage and inflation picture continues to support further rate hikes, though whether the BOJ moves in December or January remains a close call,” he added.

The European Central Bank is seen cutting rates this month, with markets implying a 27% chance it might even ease by 50 basis points on Dec. 12.

Political uncertainty is another drag for the single currency as investors wait to see if France’s government can survive the week intact.

France’s far right National Rally leaders said on Sunday that the government had rebuffed its calls for more budget concessions, raising the chances of a no confidence vote in the coming days that could topple Prime Minister Michel Barnier.

The threat of an ever-wider budget deficit saw French yields match those in Greece while the spread over German yields reached the highest since 2012.

(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Sam Holmes and Shri Navaratnam)