China shares jump, dollar skittish with all eyes on US Election Day

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE (Reuters) -An uneasy calm settled over currencies and bonds as investors waited for the United States to choose a new leader with polls showing the contest on a knife edge, while expectations China will approve more government spending lifted Chinese stocks.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched 0.3% higher. Tokyo’s Nikkei returned from a holiday and rose 1.4%. S&P 500 futures were flat, as were European and FTSE futures.

The dollar, which had eased as traders made final tweaks to positions, bought 152.46 yen and changed hands at $1.0879 per euro.

“They’ve priced what they think is price-able and that’s that,” said Westpac strategist Imre Speizer, adding that a clear win for Republican Donald Trump would lift the dollar, while a win for Democrat Kamala Harris would push it a little lower.

Election day ends an acrimonious campaign jolted by assassination attempts on Trump and the withdrawal of President Joe Biden in favour of Harris, with polls showing the candidates virtually tied.

Markets are on edge about how Trump’s protectionist trade policies in particular could stoke inflation and hit exports in the world’s biggest consumer market with bonds and the dollar expected to move on the outcome of the election.

Ultimately the U.S. election comes down to this – whether the U.S. electorate wants to vote for economic policy continuity, institutional stability and liberal democracy (Harris) or radical trade policy, a further retreat for globalization and strongman democracy (Trump),” J.P. Morgan analysts said in a note. “In short, a vote for stability or change.”

BRACED

China is seen on the front line of tariff risk and the currency in particular is trading on tenterhooks with implied volatility against the dollar around record highs.

The yuan hovered at 7.1065 per dollar, while Chinese stock markets surged to almost one-month highs as investors expect a meeting of top policymakers in Beijing this week to approve local government debt refinancing and spending.

Everyone is worried about the election result and not really committing to much, but China and Hong Kong have something more than the election,” said Steven Leung, an executive director at broker UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong.

China’s blue chip CSI300 jumped 2.4% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.4%. [.SS]

The Australian dollar barely reacted after the central bank held rates, as expected, with all eyes on the election and the Aussie was last marginally firmer at $0.6601.[AUD/]

“Simply, if Harris wins, we like selling dollar/yen and buying AUDUSD,” said currency strategists at Citi. “If Trump wins, we like buying USD against EUR, SEK, and NOK.”

Treasury markets, which have also priced in a U.S. interest rate cut for Thursday, held their ground in Asia with 10-year U.S. yields at 4.30%.

Bitcoin, which is seen as a beneficiary of a softer regulatory environment should Trump win office, has sold from recent highs and was steady at $67,924 on Tuesday.

Oil held sharp overnight gains on delays to producers’ plans for increased output, leaving benchmark Brent crude futures at $75.18 a barrel after a 3% rise on Monday. [O/R]

When results roll in after midnight GMT the focus will be on battleground states of Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.

A winner may not be known for days and Trump has signalled that he will attempt to fight any defeat, as he did in 2020.

(Editing by Shri Navaratnam)