Finance
Sterling falls after UK inflation unexpectedly holds steady
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on October 22, 2025
3 min readLast updated: January 21, 2026
Global Banking and Finance Review
Company
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on October 22, 2025
3 min readLast updated: January 21, 2026
Sterling fell as UK inflation held at 3.8%, increasing BoE rate cut bets and adding uncertainty ahead of the UK budget.
By Samuel Indyk
LONDON (Reuters) -The British pound dipped against the dollar and the euro on Wednesday, after the annual rate of Britain's consumer price inflation unexpectedly held steady in September, undershooting forecasts for a rise.
The consumer price index remained at 3.8% for the third month running, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday, below expectations from a Reuters poll and the Bank of England itself, which had foreseen a rise to 4%.
Sterling was last down 0.4% against the dollar at $1.3323, its biggest single-day fall in almost two weeks, as investors added to BoE rate cut bets.
Against the euro, it was down 0.4% at 87.05 pence.
INFLATION OPENS RATE CUT DOOR
Core inflation - which strips out volatile food and energy prices - and services inflation both also undershot forecasts, the data showed, prompting investors to add to their expectations for a rate cut from the BoE later this year.
"The BoE has been very focused on food inflation and that came in markedly lower," said ING FX analyst Francesco Pesole.
"That is quite a dovish signal for them."
Interest rate futures were now pricing in about a 75% chance that the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee will cut the Bank Rate to 3.75% by the December meeting, up from about 46% before the data.
"The MPC meeting in November is certainly live, but it comes ahead of the 26 November Budget, which could add to the Committee’s caution," said Jefferies economist Modupe Adegbembo in a note.
"A move in December would allow the BoE to assess policy announcements in the Budget as well as additional data on inflation and wages."
BUDGET CASTS CLOUD OVER STERLING
Investors remain cautious before next month's tax and government spending announcement.
Data on Tuesday showed Britain's borrowing in the first half of the financial year was the highest on record outside of the coronavirus pandemic, keeping up pressure on Finance Minister Rachel Reeves.
ING's Pesole said there are two plausible budget scenarios that could both weigh on sterling.
"If Reeves delivers a convincing budget that helps the gilt market, then it could weigh on rate expectations at the BoE," Pesole said.
"On the other hand, if she fails to calm bond markets and the gilt market got a bit nervous it could spill into the pound. Both scenarios, which aren't too unrealistic, can harm the pound in a way," Pesole added.
(Reporting by Samuel Indyk; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Jane Merriman)
Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, leading to a decrease in purchasing power.
The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom, responsible for issuing currency, managing monetary policy, and maintaining financial stability.
The consumer price index (CPI) measures changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services, used to assess inflation.
Interest rates are the amount charged by lenders to borrowers for the use of money, typically expressed as a percentage of the principal.
Foreign exchange (forex) is the global marketplace for trading national currencies against one another, influencing exchange rates.
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