Finance
Britain Will Have Enough Energy This Summer Despite Iran Turmoil, Grid Operators Say
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on April 13, 2026
3 min readLast updated: April 14, 2026
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Britain’s gas and electricity networks report sufficient supply this summer (April 1–September 30), despite declines in North Sea output and Middle East disruptions. LNG imports from other regions and ramped‑up Norwegian pipeline flows underpin stability; Ofgem caps shield consumers.
Britain's Gas and Electricity Supply Secure for Summer Amid Iran Turmoil
Energy Supply Outlook for Summer 2026
By Susanna Twidale
LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - Britain will have enough gas and electricity supply this summer, the country’s network operators said on Tuesday, despite declining domestic gas production and fears over energy supplies from the Middle East.
Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and halted Qatari LNG production, which accounts for around a fifth of global liquefied natural gas supply.
Gas Supply and Market Resilience
“While the situation in the Middle East has understandably raised questions about Britain’s gas supplies, our forecasts indicate the market has the capacity to deliver sufficient supply to meet demand this summer,” Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, director of energy systems and resilience at National Gas, said in a statement with its Gas Summer Outlook for 2026.
Alternative Sources of Gas
ALTERNATIVE SOURCES
Domestic gas supply from the UK Continental Shelf is expected to be 6% lower than last summer, at 13.1 billion cubic metres, reflecting years of declining North Sea output.
Imports of gas from Norway are expected to rise by 24% to 12.2 bcm, while imports of LNG from other countries are expected to soar by 65% to 2.7 bcm, National Gas said.
Impact of Global Events on Prices
Wholesale gas prices are up 50% since the start of the conflict, forcing Britain to pay more to attract LNG cargoes from alternative sources.
“The duration of these higher prices will depend on how long it takes Qatari production to recover and shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz,” the outlook said.
Domestic energy consumers will be protected from the higher wholesale prices by regulator Ofgem’s price cap nL4N3ZL0GF, with the current level set until the end of July.
Total gas demand is expected to be similar to last summer, around 29.8 bcm.
Gas-fired power plants typically provide around 30% of the country’s electricity but demand is volatile over the summer months, National Gas said, depending on the availability of wind and solar power.
Electricity Supply and Demand
SURPLUS ELECTRICITY EXPECTED
Renewable Output and Demand Management
Strong wind and solar power output and seasonally lower demand mean Britain is likely to see a surplus of electricity supply this summer, the National Energy System Operator said in its outlook.
NESO, which is responsible for the country's electricity networks, said it had increased flexibility, such as measures to encourage customers to shift demand to times when supply is high, with some energy suppliers paying customers, usually via money off their bills, to use extra energy at certain times.
Forecasts and Future Outlooks
Peak summer electricity demand is forecast at 29.7 gigawatts, unchanged from 2025.
The outlooks cover the period from April 1 to September 30, when gas and electricity demand is typically lower.
Winter outlooks covering October to March, to be published later in the year, could reflect greater impact from the Middle East crisis, the operators said.
(Reporting by Susanna Twidale; Editing by Alison Williams)
Key Takeaways
- •National Gas forecasts UK Continental Shelf gas output down ~6% year‑on‑year to 13.1 bcm this summer, but Norwegian pipeline imports rising ~24% and LNG imports up ~65% compensate for the shortfall.
- •Wholesale prices are up ~50% due to Middle East conflict-induced supply disruptions, but Ofgem’s price cap (covering until end‑July) protects domestic consumers.
- •Strong wind and solar generation, alongside lower seasonal demand, should result in surplus electricity; the National Energy System Operator has encouraged demand-shifting incentives to maintain grid flexibility.
References
- INSIDE STORY: Ebbing North Sea gas production to raise UK gas prices, exposure to LNG imports | ICIS
- Growth in global demand for natural gas is set to accelerate in 2026 as LNG wave spreads through markets - News - IEA
- Record Wind Output Fails to Stop UK Energy Price Surge | OilPrice.com
- 2026 Iran war fuel crisis
Frequently Asked Questions about Britain will have enough energy this summer despite Iran turmoil, grid operators say
1Will Britain have enough gas and electricity supply this summer?
Yes, network operators forecast sufficient gas and electricity supply for Britain, despite conflict in the Middle East.
2How has the Middle East conflict affected Britain's energy imports?
Conflict has disrupted shipments and halted Qatari LNG production, leading to higher gas prices and a shift to alternative LNG sources.
3What are the alternative sources for Britain's gas supply?
The UK will increase gas imports from Norway by 24% and boost LNG imports from other countries by 65% to offset lower domestic production.
4Will domestic energy consumers in Britain face higher prices?
Consumers are protected from wholesale gas price increases by Ofgem's price cap, currently set until the end of July.
5Is Britain expected to have a surplus or deficit in electricity supply this summer?
Britain is likely to see a surplus of electricity supply this summer due to strong wind and solar power output and lower seasonal demand.
