Market Sentiment – Bullish

Key Takeaways

  • Aussie breaks an important triangle resistance
  • Conference Board Leading Economic Index for Australia increased 0.3 percent
  • Conference Board Coincident Economic Index also increased 0.4 percent

Aussie traded higher after the Conference Board leading indicator release, which registered a better than expected reading. AUDUSD managed to break an important triangle resistance at 0.9340 to trade as high as 0.9358.

However, the follow through after the break was not convincing, but as long as the pair is trading above the 0.9330-20 support area more upside is feasible in the coming sessions.

Conference Board Leading Index

AUDUSD Set For Further Gains In Light Of Major Triangle Break
AUDUSD Set For Further Gains In Light Of Major Triangle Break

The CB leading Index for Australia was released by the Conference Board earlier during Asian session. The forecast was slated for a 0.2% increase, but the outcome was better than expected as the Conference Board Leading Economic Index for Australia increased 0.3 percent, and CB Coincident Economic Index also increased 0.4 percent. The report highlighted that “with this month’s increase, the six-month growth rate between August 2013 and February 2014 has picked up to 2.6 percent (about a 5.2 percent annual rate) from 0.6 percent (about a 1.3 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the leading indicators remained very widespread over the past six months”. This boosted the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD found support at 0.9300-10 levels to trade back above the 0.9330 level. There was a critical contracting triangle forming on the hourly timeframe, which was taken out earlier. The pair also breached 100 simple moving average and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last leg lower from the 0.9460 high to 0.9312 low. Next barrier towards the upside can be seen at 0.9370, which represents a double confluence resistance zone of 38.2% Fib and 200 SMA.

There are few divergences noted on the RSI, which might act as a catalyst for the pair. It would be interesting to see whether the bulls can manage to take the pair higher from the current levels or not.

Overall, as long as the pair is trading above 0.9320-00 support area, then the sellers might find it difficult to stop further gains.

Prepared by Aayush Jindal, Chief Technical Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

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