Analysis-Iran's strikes on gulf states may widen war against tehran, analysts say

Analysts Warn Iran's Gulf Strikes Threaten Wider War and Market Stability

Escalating Tensions and Their Impact on Gulf States and Global Markets

By Samia Nakhoul

DUBAI, March 3 (Reuters) - Iranian airstrikes on Gulf states could push them into a broad coalition aligned with the United States and widen the war against Iran, Middle East analysts said, after attacks on ports, cities and oil facilities in a vital energy-producing region.

By striking at the Gulf’s economic lifelines in its response to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, Tehran may be driving wary Gulf states closer to Washington and towards coordinated action against the Islamic Republic, the analysts said.

The aim of the strikes against six Gulf states, all of which are U.S. allies and host American military bases, was to ensure those countries put pressure on U.S. President Donald Trump to halt the war, but Iran appears to have miscalculated, they said.

Gulf States Face Critical Choices

"The Gulf states now face stark choices: to join the United States more openly in its war effort - allowing their skies and territory to be used and potentially participating in military operations - or risk further escalation on their own soil," Abdulaziz Sager, Chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center think tank told Reuters.

The option of neutrality receded when Iranian missiles started landing and "forced us to be their enemies," pushing states that once hedged their position into open alignment with Washington and a readiness to defend their territory and interests, he said.

Unity Among Gulf States

GULF STATES SAY IRAN'S STRIKES STRENGTHEN UNITY

Iran unleashed its missile barrages after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed on Saturday, the first day of U.S. and Israeli military strikes that Trump said were intended to prevent a security threat to the U.S. and stop Iran developing nuclear arms.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman - held an emergency ministerial meeting on Sunday, invoking Article 51 of the U.N. Charter, setting "red lines" and signalling readiness for collective self-defence as energy disruptions and security risks mount.

The GCC message to Tehran was unequivocal - that Iran's attacks had served to strengthen unity among the Gulf states.

It said continued strikes would risk transforming the Gulf from a defensive shield into an "active theatre of response", and the Gulf states have activated joint air-defence systems and reconnaissance flights across regional airspace.

Diplomatic and Military Responses

The choice is stark: respond and risk a wider war, or hold back and accept the erosion of security, economic stability and international credibility under repeated attacks, analysts say.

Gulf officials say messages have been conveyed to Tehran, directly and indirectly, warning that further attacks would carry far greater consequences for the Islamic Republic.

"Practically, they're going to try and wait as much as possible. The Americans are hitting them and the Israelis are hitting them," said one Gulf insider.

He said it was unclear who was directing events in Iran - whether strikes on oil facilities were centrally ordered or carried out by rogue units. Two scenarios appeared to be emerging: either command has fractured, with units acting autonomously, or decisions are still being coordinated at the top.

The Stakes for Regional and Global Stability

THE STAKES ARE HIGH

The stakes extend far beyond the Gulf, with oil exports, shipping lanes and energy infrastructure threatened, a vital energy corridor endangered and global trade and markets suffering repercussions.

Global energy markets face one of their gravest shocks in decades. Missile threats have forced shutdowns at some Gulf energy assets, including Qatar’s LNG facilities - around 20% of global supply - and exposed the impact on energy markets.

Potential for Wider Conflict

"If the strikes continue at this pace, and the Gulf cannot withstand a prolonged conflict, disruption to oil shipping lanes or closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it would be natural for other countries to step in, because global interests would be directly affected," Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, President of the Emirates Policy Center, told Reuters.

Mohammed Baharoon, director-general of the Dubai Public Policy Research Center, said the logic for broadening the coalition against Iran had been strengthened by the United Arab Emirates describing the Iranian strikes as acts of terrorism.

"Iran is pushing the Gulf into an expanding coalition against it," he said. "By attacking Gulf states, Iran is turning them into enemies and risking a wider war no one wants."

Attacks on Western-linked sites - from a British base in Cyprus to facilities hosting French forces in Abu Dhabi - also raised the possibility of NATO eventually being drawn into the conflict.

Economic and Diplomatic Fallout

The UAE has borne the brunt of Iran’s assault, with 63% of strikes targeting its airports, ports and oil infrastructure. Officials estimate that 165 ballistic and cruise missiles, along with 600 drones, were launched in the first 48 hours.

Missiles that struck Doha, Dubai and Manama over the weekend also targeted the Gulf states’ image as thriving financial, investment and tourism hubs, hurting their reputation as stable and safe havens.

While the UAE is determined to avoid full-scale war, it has moved swiftly through diplomatic channels, summoning Iran’s ambassador, withdrawing its own envoy and closing its embassy in Tehran and pressing the issue at the U.N. Security Council.

Gulf officials say Iran has fundamentally altered the diplomatic landscape by unleashing ballistic missiles and drones on such a scale.

They say Tehran’s actions have made it harder for future negotiations with the U.S. to treat Iran’s missile programme as separate from its nuclear ambitions, a position they say is now shared by Sunni Gulf Arab neighbours and Western governments.

(Additional reporting by Ahmed Tolba, Writing by Samia Nakhoul, Editing by Timothy Heritage)