Analysis-As Trump chills US-India ties, Modi warms to China and Russia

By Trevor Hunnicutt, David Brunnstrom and Matt Spetalnick

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Images this week of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi holding hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin at a summit hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping seemed to confirm what many experts have already concluded - the U.S. has stumbled in its effort to draw India into its diplomatic orbit. 

Successive U.S. presidential administrations have sought to cultivate the historically non-aligned India as a strategic counterweight to China and Russia.

But as the images of Modi in Tianjin underlined, U.S. President Donald Trump appears for now to have undercut that goal with a series of actions. These have included piling 50% tariffs on Indian goods and publicly browbeating New Delhi over what his administration sees as its opportunistic purchases of cheap Russian oil.

The souring of the India relationship comes even as U.S. adversaries China, Russia and North Korea have tightened their ties, despite Trump's desire to reset relations with each of them. On Wednesday, the leaders of the three countries appeared together in public for the first time at an event to mark the end of World War Two.

And Modi, in a signal to Trump, is showing a willingness to boost rather than reduce ties with Moscow - and to look past his suspicions of Beijing.

"I fear we are locked into a long downward spiral because neither leader is willing to pursue the personal outreach necessary to repair the relationship," said Ashley Tellis, who served in the White House of Republican President George W. Bush and is now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank. 

"The problem now is Trump's deepening grievances against India," Tellis said. "He may change his mind down the road, but presently the imperative of securing a trade deal with China trumps all other geopolitical considerations."

Indian officials have been rankled by having their trade proposals rejected and their arch-rival Pakistan honored by Trump, slights compounded by the U.S. president claiming credit for resolving decades-long tensions between the South Asian neighbors, which India regards as a bilateral affair.

Tanvi Madan, an India specialist at the Brookings Institution, said U.S. criticism of Modi's meetings with Xi and Putin struck Indians as odd just weeks after Trump rolled out the red carpet for the Russian leader and given the U.S. president's own plans to meet with Xi. 

"That criticism and pressure on India isn't going to sway India from seeking strategic autonomy; it is going to reinforce that instinct," she said.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump's foreign policy record "is unparalleled because of his uncanny ability to look anyone in the eye and deliver better deals for the American people," including brokering an India-Pakistan ceasefire.

"President Trump and Prime Minister Modi have a respectful relationship, and teams from both the United States and India remain in close communication on the full range of diplomatic, defense and commercial priorities in our strategic partnership," she said.

India’s foreign ministry did not respond when asked for comment.

An Indian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Trump administration's narrative on India, including recent comments by Trump's advisers, was unjustified but Delhi continues to engage with it. The official said the thaw with China has been happening since October and is not targeted at the U.S. 

CHINA VERSUS INDIA

Modi's improving relations with Xi are especially striking given long-standing Sino-Indian tensions and sometimes outright hostility, including a military clash on their disputed border in 2020. His trip to China was his first in seven years.

Trump's recent attacks have thrown assumptions of a mutually beneficial U.S. partnership with India into the air, with his "America First" approach often hitting Washington's major partners and allies harder than its traditional geopolitical adversaries.

"We get along with India very well, but India, you have to understand, for many years it was a one-sided relationship," Trump told reporters on Tuesday, reprising a theme he has raised multiple times in recent weeks.

China, India and Russia are all original members of the BRICS, a group Trump has dubbed "anti-American." Another BRICS nation, Brazil, which like India has been an important U.S. partner, has also been targeted by Trump, facing stiff tariffs and accusations that it is pursuing a "witch hunt" against his far-right ally, former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Referring to the images of solidarity in Beijing, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on Monday called it "a shame to see Modi getting in bed as the leader of the biggest democracy in the world, with the two biggest authoritarian dictators in the world in Putin and Xi Jinping."

Trump's advisers say the shift in tone is not intended as a pivot away from India, but to speak frankly with a partner.

RISKS TO THE QUAD

Trump courted Delhi during his first term, hosting a joint "Howdy Modi" rally in Texas in 2019, and revived the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, that also includes Japan and Australia. 

Modi quickly sought to rekindle ties after Trump's November election victory, calling to congratulate him within hours, dispatching his foreign minister to sit in a prime seat at the inauguration and launching an account on the Trump-backed Truth Social platform - though he hasn't used it since July.

But Trump quickly took aim at the trade imbalance and immigration issues. When Modi visited Washington in February, trade was firmly the focus and they agreed to work toward a limited trade deal by fall 2025, to expand bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, while India pledged to boost U.S. energy purchases.

India has been expected to host a November Quad summit, with a more explicit focus on security vis-a-vis China than previously. But Trump has yet to schedule a trip there, according to a person familiar with the issue.

Doubts about the meeting have come as Trump has set his sights on a major tariff deal with China ahead of a November deadline.

"For now, in Trump's worldview, there's no great power competition that requires the Quad," said Tellis.

Fixing the U.S.-India relationship may require more effort than it took to break it. 

"India is a clear example of a country that for historical, political and economic reasons won't simply bow down to Trump," said Brett Bruen, who served as a foreign policy adviser to former President Barack Obama and is now head of the Global Situation Room consultancy. "They've got other options."

(Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt, David Brunnstrom and Matt Spetalnick in Washington and Shivam Patel in New Delhi; Editing by Don Durfee and Claudia Parsons)