Trump's tariff tally: $34 billion and counting, global companies say

By Sayantani Ghosh, David Gaffen, Arpan Varghese

SAN FRANCISCO/NEW YORK/BENGALURU (Reuters) -President Donald Trump's trade war has cost companies more than $34 billion in lost sales and higher costs, according to a Reuters analysis of corporate disclosures, a toll that is expected to rise as ongoing uncertainty over tariffs paralyzes decision making at some of the world's largest companies.

Across the United States, Asia and Europe, companies including Apple, Ford, Porsche and Sony have pulled or slashed their profit forecasts, and an overwhelming majority say the erratic nature of Trump's trade policies has made it impossible to accurately estimate costs. Reuters reviewed company statements, regulatory filings, conference and media call transcripts to pull together for the first time a snapshot of the tariff cost so far for global businesses.

The $33 billion is a sum of estimates from 32 companies in the S&P 500, three companies from Europe's STOXX 600 and 21 companies in Japan's Nikkei 225 indices. Economists say the cost to businesses will likely be multiple times what companies have so far disclosed.

"You can double or triple your tally and we'd still say ... the magnitude is bound to be far greater than most people realize," said Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, professor at the Yale School of Management.

The ripple effects could be worse, he added, citing the potential for lower spending from consumers and businesses, higher inflation expectations. 

While a recent pause in Sino-US trade hostilities has offered some relief and Trump has backed down from tariff threats against Europe, it is still not clear what the final trade deals will look like. A U.S. trade court on Wednesday blocked Trump's tariffs from going into effect. In this environment, strategists say companies will look to strengthen supply chains, boost near-shoring efforts, and prioritize new markets - all of which will push up costs. 

Companies themselves are uncertain about the final cost. As the corporate earnings season draws to a close, Reuters found at least 42 companies have cut their forecasts and 16 have withdrawn or suspended their guidance. For instance, earlier this month, Walmart declined to provide a quarterly profit forecast and said it would raise prices, drawing a rebuke from Trump. Volvo Cars, one of the European automakers most exposed to U.S. tariffs, withdrew its earnings forecast for the next two years and United Airlines gave two different forecasts, saying it was impossible to predict the macro environment this year.

Trump has argued that tariffs will cut America's trade deficit and prompt companies to move operations to the country, bringing jobs back home. Tariffs will also force countries including Mexico to stop the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs into the United States, Trump has said.

“The Administration has consistently maintained that the United States ... has the leverage to make our trading partners ultimately bear the cost of tariffs," said White House spokesperson Kush Desai. 

TARIFF TALK

On earnings conference calls for the January to March quarter, 360 companies, or 72%, in the S&P 500 index mentioned tariffs, up from 150 companies, or 30%, in the previous quarter. Executives at 219 companies listed on the STOXX 600 mentioned tariffs, compared with 161 in the prior quarter. Of the Nikkei 225 companies in Japan, that number was 58, up from 12 earlier.

"I don't think corporations have an awful lot of visibility about anything in the future," said Rich Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors in New York. Referring to withdrawn forecasts, he said, "If you take into account this uncertain world and you can't guide anybody to a number, it's safer not to guide." 

Wall Street is expecting net profit for companies in the S&P 500 index to grow at an average 5.1% per quarter through April through December, versus a growth rate of 11.7% a year earlier, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Automakers, airlines and consumer goods importers have been among the worst hit. Levies on raw material costs and parts including aluminum and electronics have risen, and tariffs on multiple countries are making assembling cars more expensive because of far-flung supply chains. Moving any production to the United States will also raise labor costs. 

Kleenex tissue maker Kimberly Clark slashed its annual profit forecast last month and said it would incur about $300 million in costs this year as tariffs push up its supply-chain costs. A few days later the company said it would invest $2 billion over five years to expand its manufacturing capacity in the U.S., a number not included in the Reuters tally. Companies including Apple and Eli Lilly have this year announced investments in the United States.

Johnnie Walker whiskey and Don Julio tequila maker Diageo  said earlier this month it would cut $500 million in costs and make substantial asset disposals by 2028, as a 10% tariff on imports from places like Britain and the European Union is expected to deal a $150 million hit to its operating profit every year. 

"Tariffs could significantly drive up the cost of a nice night out - or even a cozy night in," said Zak Stambor, analyst with eMarketer.

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(Reporting by Sayantani Ghosh in San Francisco, Arpan Varghese in Bengaluru, and David Gaffen in New York; Additional reporting by Anuja Bharat Mistry and Sameer Manekar in Bengaluru; Reuters Bengaluru and Gdansk bureaus, Josephine Mason in London and Miyoung Kim in Singapore; Editing by Peter Henderson and Anna Driver)