Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on June 23, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 23, 2026
Add as preferred source on GoogleHSBC and Goldman Sachs predict Brent oil prices could hit $110 if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, impacting global oil flows.
(Reuters) -Brent crude oil prices could hit $110 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Goldman Sachs analysts have forecast, while HSBC analysts see prices topping above $80.
Prices for Brent could average around $95 in the fourth quarter of 2025, Goldman Sachs said in a note dated June 22.
Their assumptions included oil flows through the critical waterway halving for a month and remaining down by 10% for the following 11 months.
Oil prices on Monday jumped to their highest since January after Washington joined Israel over the weekend in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities.
Prediction markets, despite limited liquidity, reflect a 52% probability of Iran closing the strait this year, Goldman said, citing data from Polymarket. About a fifth of the world's oil consumption passes through it.
"While the events in the Middle East remain fluid, we think that the economic incentives, including for the U.S. and China, to try to prevent a sustained and very large disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would be strong," Goldman Sachs said.
HSBC in a note on Monday said that oil prices are set to rise on the higher probability of a closure, or other Iranian retaliatory actions following U.S. military strikes against Iran's nuclear sites.
If there is no disruption, prices should trend down by the fourth quarter as OPEC+ adds supply and demand drops, HSBC analysts wrote.
They forecast Brent at $67 in second and third quarter and at $65 from fourth quarter onwards, but sees upside risks.
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey, Anushree Mukherjee and Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; editing by Saad Sayeed and Jason Neely)
Goldman Sachs analysts forecast that Brent crude oil prices could hit $110 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked.
HSBC analysts predict that oil prices are set to rise due to the higher probability of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz or Iranian retaliatory actions.
The predictions are based on assumptions that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz could halve for a month and remain down by 10% for the following 11 months.
Prediction markets reflect a 52% probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz this year, indicating significant concern in the market.
HSBC analysts noted that if there is no disruption, oil prices should trend down by the fourth quarter as OPEC+ adds supply and demand drops.
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