Finance
IMF says July forecasts to take into account trade deals, uncertainty
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on June 12, 2025
3 min readLast updated: January 23, 2026
Global Banking & Finance Review®
Company
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on June 12, 2025
3 min readLast updated: January 23, 2026
The IMF will update its global growth forecast in July, considering trade deals and uncertainties. Key factors include US-China tariff reductions and Trump's tariffs.
By David Lawder and Karin Strohecker
(Reuters) -The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that its next global growth forecast in July will take into account both positive and negative trade developments but declined to predict a tariff-driven GDP downgrade similar to that released by the World Bank this week.
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said that since the last release of the Fund's World Economic Outlook in April, there have been some positive developments that could support improved economic activity, including a major tariff reduction between the U.S. and China and an initial trade deal between the U.S. and Britain.
"So taken together such announcements combined with the April 9 pause on the high level of tariffs, these could support activity relative to the forecast that we had in April," Kozack told a regular IMF news briefing. "But nonetheless, we do have an outlook for the global economy that remains subject to heightened uncertainty, especially as trade negotiations continue."
The IMF also will take into account U.S. President Donald Trump's added steel and aluminum tariffs, she said. These have now reached 50% for all exporters.
The World Bank on Tuesday slashed its 2025 global growth forecast by four-tenths of a percentage point from its January forecast to 2.3%, saying that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a "significant headwind" for nearly all economies.
The development lender cut forecasts for nearly 70% of all economies - including the U.S., China and Europe, but the prior forecast came before Trump took office and imposed tariffs on nearly all trading partners.
The IMF's steep April forecast cut did take into account Trump's initial tariff assault, reducing the 2025 global growth outlook by half a percentage point from its January forecast to 2.8%, with a slower decline in inflation.
Kozack said the next IMF World Economic Outlook update will be issued toward the end of July, but did not provide a specific date.
Trump's "reciprocal" tariff pause is currently scheduled to expire on July 8, with many countries seeking to negotiate tariff-reducing deals before then. And Trump has said there could be extensions of that deadline for countries engaged in good faith negotiations with the U.S.
Kozack said that more recent activity indicators reflect "a complex economic landscape" with first quarter front-loading activity to beat tariffs, while there has been some diversion of trade and an unwinding of import activity in the second quarter. There also could be more trade deals or other developments to take into account.
"So all of this creates kind of a complicated picture for us, with some upside risk, some other developments, and we'll take all of these developments together into account as we update our forecast," Kozack said.
(Reporting by David Lawder and Karin Strohecker; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Marguerita Choy)
The IMF will take into account both positive and negative trade developments, as well as recent tariff changes, in its next global growth forecast.
The next update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook is expected toward the end of July, although a specific date has not been provided.
Higher tariffs and increased uncertainty have led the World Bank to cut its global growth forecast for 2025, reflecting the impact of trade tensions.
The U.S. has imposed tariffs of 50% on steel and aluminum for all exporters, which the IMF is considering in its forecasts.
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack noted that recent announcements and tariff pauses could support economic activity relative to previous forecasts.
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