Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on July 3, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 23, 2026
Add as preferred source on GoogleAEB cuts Russia's 2025 car sales forecast but sees recovery potential with government aid and interest rate cuts.
(Reuters) -Industry group AEB on Thursday said it had lowered its forecast for Russia's 2025 car sales, but said the market was showing early signs of stabilising and that more government support and lower interest rates could support a recovery.
Russia's car market collapsed in 2022 as Western carmakers such as Renault and Volkswagen exited the market following the start of Moscow's full-scale war in Ukraine, paving the way for Chinese carmakers to seize more than half the market in the ensuing recovery.
The Association of European Businesses (AEB) said it sees Russian car sales falling by 24% compared to 2024 to 1.25 million units. In January, the lobby group had forecasted a 15% drop to 1.4 million units.
"Looking ahead, we can expect a market recovery - provided there is government support," the AEB said, mentioning demand support programmes, which provide government money by purchasing some kinds of cars.
"We also expect the first modest cut in the key interest rate to contribute to market stabilisation, with further downward adjustments likely to bolster positive momentum," the lobby group said.
The Russian central bank cut its key interest rate by one percentage point to 20% in June and may consider a more significant cut at its next rate-setting meeting on July 25.
(Reporting by Gleb Stolyarov; Editing by Andrew Osborn and Alexander Marrow)
The AEB now expects car sales in Russia to fall by 24% compared to 2024, totaling 1.25 million units.
The AEB believes that market recovery is possible with government support and demand support programs.
The Russian central bank cut its key interest rate by one percentage point to 20% in June and may consider a more significant cut soon.
Earlier in January, the AEB had forecasted a 15% drop in car sales to 1.4 million units.
The market is showing early signs of stabilizing, according to the AEB, which is hopeful for recovery with additional government support.
Explore more articles in the Finance category
