Analysis-NATO's dilemma: how Zelenskiy can attend summit without provoking Trump

By Andrew Gray, Sabine Siebold and Lili Bayer

BRUSSELS (Reuters) -Officials organising a NATO summit in The Hague this month are expected to keep it short, restrict discussion of Ukraine, and choreograph meetings so that Volodymyr Zelenskiy can somehow be in town without provoking Donald Trump.

Though the Ukrainian president is widely expected to attend the summit in some form, NATO has yet to confirm whether he is actually invited. Diplomats say he may attend a pre-summit dinner but be kept away from the main summit meeting.

Whether the brief summit statement will even identify Russia as a threat or express support for Ukraine is still up in the air.

The careful steps are all being taken to avoid angering Washington, much less provoking any repeat of February's White House blow-up between Trump and Zelenskiy that almost torpedoed the international coalition supporting Kyiv.

NATO's European members, who see Russia as an existential threat and NATO as the principal means of countering it, want to signal their continued strong support for Ukraine. But they are also desperate to avoid upsetting a volatile Trump, who stunned them at a summit seven years ago by threatening to quit the alliance altogether.

If Zelenskiy does not attend in some form, it would be "at least a PR disaster", acknowledged a senior NATO diplomat.

Since Russia's invasion three years ago, Zelenskiy has regularly attended NATO summits as the guest of honour, where alliance members pledged billions in weapons and condemned Russia for an illegal war of conquest. Leaders repeatedly promised that Ukraine would one day join NATO.

But since Washington's shift under Trump towards partly accepting Russia's justifications for the war and disparaging Zelenskiy, the 32-member alliance no longer speaks with a single voice about Europe's deadliest conflict since World War Two. Trump has taken Ukraine's NATO membership off the table, unilaterally granting Moscow one of its main demands.

After dressing down Zelenskiy in the Oval Office in February, Trump cut vital U.S. military and intelligence support for Ukraine for days.

Since then, the two men publicly mended fences in a meeting in St Peter's Basilica for the funeral of Pope Francis. But mostly they have spoken remotely, with Zelenskiy twice phoning the White House on speakerphone while surrounded by four friendly Europeans -- Britain's Keir Starmer, France's Emmanuel Macron, Germany's Friedrich Merz and Poland's Donald Tusk.

SPENDING BOOST

Trump is expected to come away from The Hague with a big diplomatic victory as NATO members heed his longstanding complaints that they do not spend enough on defence and agree a much higher target.

They are expected to boost their goal for traditional military spending to 3.5% of economic output from 2%. A further pledge to spend 1.5% on related expenses such as infrastructure and cyber defence would raise the total to 5% demanded by Trump.

But the summit itself and its accompanying written statement are expected to be unusually short, minimising the chances of flare-ups or disagreements. A pledge to develop recommendations for a new Russia strategy has been kicked into the long grass.

Meanwhile, Zelenskiy may have to be content with an invitation to a pre-summit dinner, hosted by Dutch King Willem-Alexander, diplomats say.

Unlike at NATO’s previous two annual summits, the leaders do not plan to hold a formal meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council, the official venue for talks between the alliance and Kyiv. The senior NATO diplomat said a working dinner with either foreign ministers or defence ministers could instead serve as an NUC.

'PROPERLY REPRESENTED'

On Wednesday, NATO boss Mark Rutte said he had invited Ukraine to the summit, but sidestepped a question on whether the invitation included Zelenskiy himself.

After meeting Rutte on Monday, Zelenskiy said on X that it was "important that Ukraine is properly represented" at the summit. "That would send the right signal to Russia," he said.

U.S. and Ukrainian officials did not reply to questions about the nature of any invitation to Ukraine.

Some European countries are still willing to say in public that they hope to see Zelenskiy invited as the head of the Ukrainian delegation.

Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur said he would like to see a "delegation led by President Zelenskiy". Asked about an invitation for Zelenskiy, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said "I, for my part, strongly welcome the invitation" without giving further details.

But diplomats have tried to play down the importance of the formal status of Zelenskiy's role: "Many allies want to have Zelenskiy at the summit, but there is flexibility on the precise format that would allow his presence," said a second senior NATO diplomat.

A senior European diplomat said: "We should not get stuck on ‘NUC or no NUC’. If he comes to the leaders’ dinner, that would be the minimum."

(Additional reporting by by Lidia KellyEditing by Peter Graff)