BOJ to pause rate hikes through September amid Trump uncertainty: Reuters poll

By Satoshi Sugiyama

TOKYO (Reuters) - Most economists now expect the Bank of Japan will hold interest rates through September as it pauses to assess the effects of U.S. tariffs, a Reuters survey showed, although a slight majority still see at least a 25-basis-point hike by year-end.

Those results echoed views expressed by BOJ rate-setters that U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs have disrupted but not derailed the bank's endeavours for slightly tighter monetary conditions, even as many peers are leaning toward reducing borrowing costs.

In the May 7-13 survey, 95% of economists, 59 of 62, forecast no change to interest rates at the BOJ's next policy meeting concluding on June 17.

In a shift from last month, 67% of economists, 39 of 58, expect borrowing costs to stay at the current 0.50% in the July-September quarter. Around 36% of respondents, a minority, had anticipated no change in the interest rate during that period in an April poll.

"The BOJ will be unable to raise interest rates for the time being to assess the impact of Trump's tariffs," said Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus.

Still, 52% of respondents foresaw at least a 25-basis-point increase in the key rate by the end of the year, the survey showed. 

The median prediction for the end-September rate was 0.50%, as opposed to 0.75% in the April poll, while the end-December forecast remained unchanged at 0.75%.

"In the short term, the economy will slow down and the underlying rate of inflation will moderate, but the virtuous cycle of wages and prices is likely to continue," said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.

"If trade negotiations between the U.S. and major countries progress, global economic activity will begin to recover," Tsunoda said, adding the timing of the next rate hike is more likely to be delayed compared to previous projections.

Little changed from the April survey, 96% of respondents, 26 of 27, did not see the need for the BOJ to cut interest rates.

Markets have priced a nearly 19 basis point increase in 2025, with the move broadly expected by the end of the year.

BOJ deputy governor Shinichi Uchida told parliament on Tuesday the central bank expects wages and prices to keep rising, even as uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy weighs on the economy, keeping policymakers on course to continue raising interest rates.

On April 2, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on all countries except Canada, Mexico and China, along with higher tariff rates for many big trading partners, including Japan, which faces a 24% tariff rate starting in July unless it can negotiate a deal with the U.S.

Japan's tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa previously told reporters the two sides hoped to meet again in mid-May.

In the survey 55% of analysts, 16 of 29, said they either strongly or somewhat approved of the Japanese government's tariff negotiations with the U.S., followed by "neither approve nor disapprove" at 34%.

(Other stories from the May Reuters global economic poll) 

(Reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama; Polling by Devayani Sathyan, Veronica Khongwir and Pranoy Krishna; Editing by Sam Holmes)