Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on April 14, 2025
By Lawrence Delevingne and Alun John
BOSTON/LONDON (Reuters) -U.S. shares gained on Monday, while the dollar dipped, after the White House exempted smartphones and computers from U.S. tariffs but President Donald Trump said semiconductor levies were likely.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both gained about 0.8%. The Nasdaq Composite added about 0.6%, boosted by technology shares including Apple, whose stock gained around 2%. The S&P 500 rallied 5.7% last week, but is still down around 8% in 2025. [.N]
On the face of it, the exemption of 20 product types accounting for 23% of U.S. imports from China was a boon to manufacturers. But the technology tariff news gave only a modicum of help to U.S. government bonds trying to recover from the bruising they suffered last week, and the dollar lost ground once more as the off-again, on-again trade policy gyrations left investors confused and analysts bearish on the long run.
The 90-day pause on broad tariffs and further concessions over the weekend "lessen the near-term probability of a recession," Morgan Stanley U.S. equity strategists wrote in a note on Monday. Still, they noted that the back-and-forth on policy is still likely to exacerbate uncertainty for businesses and consumers.
"The equity market will likely remain in a wide trading range with high volatility until we have more certainty on the depth of the growth slowdown and the timing of a recovery," they wrote.
The relative optimism was felt in Europe and Asia as well, outperforming also because they missed the tail end of the bounce on Wall Street on Friday.
Europe's broad STOXX 600 index rose about 2.7%, having lost 2% last week, and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 1.6% after shedding more than 4% last week. [.EU] MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose 1.25%.
Tech firms and the broader supply chain were the biggest gainers in Europe, after companies in Apple's supply chain surged in Asia.
The market also has more earnings to weather this week. Goldman Sachs on Monday said profit rose 15% in the first quarter, fueled by stock traders who capitalized on volatile markets, sending its shares up about 2%. Bank of America, Citigroup and chipmaker TSMC are due to report later in the week.
In terms of economic data, March numbers showed a 12.4% jump in Chinese exports as firms rushed in orders ahead of Trump's tariffs.
On the docket this week are U.S. retail sales and Chinese gross domestic product, while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Wednesday, when he will almost certainly be quizzed on the prospect of rate cuts and the recent stress in the Treasury market.
NOT SO SAFE
Fear the U.S. Treasury market would lose its global preeminence abated slightly, with the 10-year yield falling after last week's epic surge. The 10-year yield was last down about 11 basis points at 4.382%.
Last week's rise in yields came alongside a fall in the dollar. The slide continued on Monday, with the dollar index down 0.2%
The recent declines can be explained by overseas investors flooding out of U.S. assets to move back home, though some are asking broader questions.
"Any sustained environment of a lower U.S. dollar, lower bond prices, and lower equity prices suggests to us capital outflow from U.S. assets," Wells Fargo Investment Institute strategists wrote in a note on Monday. "We believe it reflects evaporating U.S. growth exceptionalism and reduced attraction at the margin for dollar assets for reserve purposes amid erratic U.S. decision-making."
Japanese officials are gearing up for trade negotiations with the United States that will likely touch on currency policy, with some officials privately bracing for Washington to call on Tokyo to prop up the yen. On Monday, the dollar fell against the yen again, down 0.26% to 143.13, after hitting a six-month low at 142.05 last week.
The euro was little changed at $1.148, still near a three-year top of $1.1474 hit last week. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut rates by a quarter point to 2.25%.
In commodity markets, spot gold fell about 0.75% to $3,212, although global uncertainty has proven a windfall to gold prices which surged to all-time peaks at $3,245 an ounce. [GOL/]
Oil prices settled slightly higher on Monday on the electronic tariff exemptions and data showing a sharp rebound in China's crude imports in March. But gains were limited by concerns that the trade war could weaken global economic growth and dent fuel demand. [O/R]
(Reporting by Lawrence Delevingne in Boston, Alun John in London and Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Toby Chopra, Will Dunham, Sharon Singleton, Susan Fenton and Rod Nickel)
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