Morning Bid: Courtroom Twists Add to Tariff Risks

Morning Bid: Courtroom twists add to tariff risks

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland

President Donald Trump's tariffs are more on-again than off-again as we head into the end of a dramatic week of courtroom surprises, which initially had investors cheering but then left them with little more than an additional source of uncertainty.

Looking around Asia in early trading, losses to Japan's Nikkei stand out. Stocks in Tokyo were hit by an additional whammy from renewed demand for the safe-haven yen, which undercuts the value of overseas revenues for the index's heavyweight exporters.

The drop in Hong Kong's Hang Seng was also eye-catching, with both benchmarks essentially giving up all of the sizeable gains of the day before.

When the little-known United States Court of International Trade on Wednesday unexpectedly blocked the bulk of Trump's aggressive levies, on the grounds that he had overstepped his authority, there was some inkling that the judiciary could provide a check on his often erratic policymaking.

But a day later those tariffs were back, reinstated by an appeals court while it considers the case. That is by no means a foreshadowing of its eventual ruling, but Trump's team is already saying it has other avenues to keep the tariffs in effect.

For businesses, consumers and central banks, it's just one more reason to sit on their hands, pushing out already delayed decisions on hiring, spending or cutting rates.

For U.S. trade partners, though, the Trump administration assures us that good-faith negotiations continue undeterred. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pointed specifically to high-level talks he will have with a Japanese delegation in Washington later today.

Despite Trump's optimism, deals have been hard to come by - a broad agreement with Britain is the only one so far. And Bessent acknowledged talks with China are "a bit stalled", adding they may require the direct involvement of Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The courtroom drama around tariffs came just as tariff revenues were starting to pick up. Donald Schneider at Piper Sandler on social media platform X this week estimated them at an annualised pace of $255 billion, up from a norm of about $85 billion.

That would be welcome news as the sweeping tax cuts and spending measures in Trump's "big, beautiful bill", which is about to go to the Senate, have been fanning worries about U.S. fiscal sustainability.

One critic of the bill has been Elon Musk, and there were signs that what looked to be a quiet exit from his work at DOGE might carry some bad blood.

But Trump has since announced a big sending off with a joint press conference at the Oval Office for later today, adding that although it'll be the Tesla and SpaceX CEO's last day on the government payroll, "he will always be with us".

The air also seems less heavy between Trump and Fed Chair Jay Powell following a private meeting in the Oval Office on Thursday. While the president reiterated his feeling that the central bank is making a mistake by not lowering rates, the lack of any name-calling in social media posts afterwards may have come as a relief to markets that were roiled last month by Trump's public threats to fire the Fed chief.

Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:

-Germany consumer inflation data (May)

-Bank of Italy Governor Panetta speaks in Rome

-Fed speakers include San Francisco Fed President Daly, Dallas Fed President Logan, Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee

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(By Kevin Buckland; Editing by Edmund Klamann)