Morning Bid: Armed conflicts rage, but hopes emerge for a trade war thaw

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rocky Swift

The European theatre of World War II ended 80 years ago today, a sombre reminder as armed conflict still rages on the continent while another one threatens to ignite between nuclear powers in South Asia.

To accommodate a moment of silence in honour of Victory in Europe (VE) Day, the Bank of England is delaying its policy announcement by two minutes to 1102 GMT. The BoE is expected to continue its gradual pace of rate cuts that have come more slowly than those by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which stood pat yesterday in the face of inflation and recession fears.

A different sort of world war, between U.S. President Donald Trump and practically all of America's trade partners, looked marginally cooler ahead of ice-breaker talks between Washington and Beijing trade tsars this weekend. Chinese blue chips and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.75% and 1.1%, respectively, on hopes the negotiations will bring down retaliatory tariffs of more than 100% with the U.S.

And equity futures in European and U.S. markets turned higher after Trump posted that he will hold a press conference today about a trade deal with a "BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF MANY!!!."

This would be the first of some 200 trade deals that Trump claims to have made but has kept mum on so far. Last week, the president trumpeted "potential deals" with South Korea, Japan, and India.

But the New York Times says the "big" country is Britain, a possibility previously flagged by analysts. UK stock futures and sterling climbed in Asia trade.

North Korea lobbed missiles into the ocean again, and Pakistan vowed retaliation for an Indian air strike, which was itself retaliation for an attack by Islamist militants last month. Stock markets in Asia weathered the drama, continuing anaemic gains seen on Wall Street after the Fed.

But steeper advances in gold and Bitcoin signalled resilient demand for defensive assets.   

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

- European earnings: Siemens Energy 

- US earnings: Shopify, ConocoPhillips, Warner Bros Discovery 

- Germany trade, industrial production (March)

- BoE policy decision

- US weekly jobless claims

- $25 billion auction of US 30-year bonds

- Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks

Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news?

Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here.

(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)