Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on August 12, 2025
4 min readLast updated: January 22, 2026
Global stocks hit record highs as Fed rate cut expectations rise, weakening the US dollar. Trade war truce boosts market sentiment.
By Naomi Rovnick and Chibuike Oguh
NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -World shares hit record highs on Tuesday after U.S. consumer prices data fueled expectations of an impending Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, and a trade war truce between Washington and Beijing also buoyed sentiment.
On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit record highs after losing ground in the previous session. All 11 sectors on the S&P 500 advanced, led by stocks in communication services, technology and financials.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI closed up 1.10%, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 1.13% and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC advanced 1.39%.
European stocks finished higher, rising 0.21%. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose 1% to 947.66, hitting a fresh record high.
U.S. Labor Department data showed that the consumer price index rose 2.7% in 12 months through to July, which was slightly below the 2.8% rate that economists polled by Reuters had forecast.
"There was upside risk to inflation, and the market was bracing for that in some respects," said James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management in Santa Monica, California. "The report today, all things considered, was fairly benign. I don't think there was anything to write home about, but it certainly took the worst-case scenario off the table."
Asian equities had rallied overnight after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order pausing triple-digit levies on Chinese imports for another 90 days. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.18%.
Markets on Tuesday traded on short-term relief, however, as the softer-than-expected consumer price data firmed up bets for U.S. rate cuts. Traders are pricing in a 94% chance of a Fed cut in September, up from nearly 86% a day ago and about 57% a month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Short-term U.S. Treasury bond prices rallied moderately, with the yield on two-year notes, which track interest rate expectations, down 2.3 bps at 3.731%. Longer-dated bond prices were lower. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 1.4 basis points to 4.287% while the yield on 30-year notes rose 3.4 basis points to 4.8746%.
Investors had been on tenterhooks about this batch of inflation data because it had followed a surprisingly weak jobs report on August 1 and had the potential to make concerns about U.S. stagflation a dominant global narrative.
Trump has nominated White House adviser Stephen Miran to temporarily fill a vacant board seat at the U.S. central bank, stirring up speculation about presidential interference in monetary policy.
The U.S. and China have engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff duel throughout the year, culminating in trade talks in Geneva, London, and Stockholm since May that focused on bringing tariffs down from triple-digit levels.
Chinese exports jumped 7.2% year-on-year in July, beating the consensus forecast of economists polled by Reuters, but the nation's factory gate prices dropped by the most in two years in a further sign of manufacturers struggling to sell goods at home.
In currency markets, the dollar weakened 0.25% to 147.77 against the Japanese yen and was down 0.71% at 0.807 against the Swiss franc. The euro rose 0.53% against the dollar at $1.1675.
The pound rose 0.51% against the dollar to $1.3496 as traders anticipated the Bank of England will lag other non-U.S. central banks in implementing rate cuts.
The BoE cut benchmark borrowing costs by a quarter-point to 4% last week after a tightly balanced vote between members of its monetary policy committee, who also broadly agreed that the risks of an upward wages-and-prices spiral remained present.
Ten-year gilt yields were flat at 4.6186%.
In commodities, spot gold prices were up 0.11% at $3,347.60 per ounce after dropping nearly 1.6% on Monday in response to Trump announcing there would be no tariffs on imported gold bars. [GOL/]
Brent crude oil settled down 0.77% to $66.12 a barrel ahead of the August 15 meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, aimed at negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine. U.S. crude settled down 1.24% to $63.17 a barrel.
(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York and Naomi Rovnick in London, Editing by Ed Osmond and Matthew Lewis)
A Federal Reserve interest rate cut is a reduction in the interest rate set by the Federal Reserve, aimed at stimulating economic activity by making borrowing cheaper.
The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, serving as an indicator of inflation.
Stagflation is an economic condition characterized by stagnant economic growth, high unemployment, and high inflation, making it difficult for policymakers to address.
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