Finance
Dollar rebounds from slump spurred by Powell's dovish surprise
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on August 25, 2025
4 min readLast updated: January 22, 2026
Global Banking & Finance Review®
Company
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on August 25, 2025
4 min readLast updated: January 22, 2026
The dollar rebounded after Powell's dovish comments, impacting forex markets and raising expectations for a Fed rate cut.
By Laura Matthews
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar advanced against major currencies on Monday, bouncing from a steep fall last week that followed remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that boosted expectations for a rate cut next month.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.49% to 98.32, and was on track for its biggest daily percentage gain since July 30, with the euro down 0.69% at $1.1634, after hitting a four-week high of $1.174225 on Friday.
Major brokerages, including Barclays, BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank, expect a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September following Powell's remarks on Friday when he said risks to the U.S. jobs market were rising, although he also said inflation remained a threat.
"While Powell and company are undoubtedly still leaning toward cutting interest rates next month, the combination of this week’s Core PCE report, next week’s NFP release, and August’s CPI data could still sway the central bank toward holding off if they unanimously point to higher inflation and a weakening jobs outlook," said Matt Weller, global head of market research at StoneX.
"In other words, forex traders are realizing that a September rate cut isn’t quite a done deal yet, and traders are hedging their bets against the potential for a split decision to hold rates unchanged for another month, leading to a modest but broad-based recovery in the U.S. dollar."
Traders were pricing in an 84.3% chance for a cut of at least a quarter-point at the Federal Reserve's September meeting, down slightly from the 84.7% in the prior session, according to CME's FedWatch tool but well above the 61.9% expectation a month ago.
Measured against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar has weakened by more than 9% this year. The euro has been the lead gainer in the basket with a climb of more than 12%.
Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier, expects the euro to strengthen to about $1.20-$1.22 over the next six-to-12 months.
Meanwhile, euro zone bond yields moved higher on Monday, reversing a fall from late last week as traders reassessed their expectations for the Fed and the impact on Europe. They also processed data showing an uptick in German business morale.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, rose 3.9 basis points to 2.758%, nearing a five-month peak of 2.787% hit last week.
U.S. Treasury yields were also slightly higher across the curve as traders calibrated positioning. The two-year Treasury yield, especially sensitive to interest rate expectations, was last up 4 basis points at 3.728%.
Apart from the Fed's policy path, investors are likely to stay focused on U.S. President Donald Trump's attacks on Powell and other Fed policymakers, which have raised concerns about the central bank's independence.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told CNBC in an interview that the Trump administration's move to replace Powell as head of the central bank will likely take months as the president decides on a replacement.
"Renewed efforts to reshape the Fed present a potential challenge to longer maturities," analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield inched up 0.1 basis point and was last at 4.8836%.
Upcoming data points which could influence the central bank's policy path include the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, on Friday, and monthly payrolls figures for August, due a week later.
(Reporting by Laura Matthews; Additional reporting by Jaspreet Kalra, Chuck Mikolajczak and Kevin Buckland; Editing by Alex Richardson, Barbara Lewis, Susan Fenton and Andrea Ricci)
Powell's comments boosted expectations for a potential interest rate cut, leading to a rebound in the dollar after a significant decline.
Traders are pricing in an 84.3% chance for a cut of at least a quarter-point at the Federal Reserve's September meeting.
The euro has gained more than 12% against the dollar this year, making it the lead gainer in the currency basket.
Traders are closely watching the upcoming Core PCE report, the NFP release, and August's CPI data to gauge the Fed's policy direction.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that renewed efforts to reshape the Fed could present challenges, particularly for longer maturities.
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