Wary diners shun restaurants, raising prospect of boost for retailers

By Paolo Laudani

(Reuters) -Cash-conscious consumers choosing to eat in rather than dine out have raised the prospect of an upturn in earnings for supermarkets and food delivery firms, according to data, analysts and company executives.

U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies have added to economic uncertainty, increased the likelihood of stubborn inflation and made consumers question whether restaurants are worth the expense.

"I eat much more at home because first of all eating out is way more expensive lately, and quality is not always guaranteed," Marilena Graziano, a Florence-based teacher, told Reuters.

Dutch retailer Ahold Delhaize, owner of the Food Lion and Giant stores in the United States, said earlier this month that it was increasing its offers tailored to low-cost eating in.

"We have solutions for customers to have a very affordable meal of $2.50 per person at home with the family," Ahold's CEO Frans Muller said in an interview this month. "We have increased a lot of that proposition in our stores." 

The shift hints at a revival of the boom in eating at home during the COVID-19 pandemic when people could not go out. Home delivery companies such as Just Eat.com made record sales, although they struggled once lockdown restrictions were lifted.

Figures from Rabobank and Eurostat show that food retail sales volumes adjusted for inflation in supermarkets, hypermarkets and similar stores grew by 1.5% in the Eurozone between January and May this year. That compares with 0.1% growth over the same period last year.

For food and beverage services, such as restaurants and bars, the metric fell by 0.3%. Last year's growth was flat at 0%. 

RESTAURANTS LAG 

The inflation-adjusted figures suggest that sales at supermarkets are recovering faster than at restaurants, especially for routine weekday meals, Rabobank's consumer foods sector analyst Maria Castroviejo told Reuters.

Castroviejo cited the rising popularity of grab-and-go meals, salads, wraps, and sandwiches.

"This offer has increased and improved a lot and we know that this is taking away some demands from certain foodservice players," she said.

Delivery Hero, which owns Glovo and Foodpanda, said that consumers go out less during times of economic hardship, but will order in as a cheaper alternative.

A survey of more than 5,000 U.S. adults commissioned by Hellofresh, a German meal-kit maker that makes most of its revenue in North America, showed 93% of them expect to cook as much as last year or more in the next year.

Among those who plan to cook more at home in the next year, more than three-quarters say the economy is a factor.    

Visits to grocery stores have steadily outpaced those to restaurants and bars in the U.S., data from foot traffic tracking firm Placer.ai showed.

The data showed visits to grocery stores grew by 1.3% year-on-year in June, while they fell 0.4% in the same months for restaurants.

Jenny Russmann, who works for an international organisation in Vienna, is among those using supermarkets more.

"I switched to eating at home a bit over a month ago due to wanting to just be healthier and especially also costs."

In Milan, Chiara Schiavoni, employed at the regional administration, said she prefers to eat at home as prices rise and restaurants' portions shrink in Italy's financial capital.

"I get seven-euro food vouchers at work and I can't even buy a sandwich, which costs around nine euros in restaurants around my office," she said. "On the other hand, I can use them in supermarkets where all in all it's more convenient."

($1 = 0.8566 euros)

(Reporting by Paolo Laudani in Gdansk; additional reporting by Dimitri Rhodes, Vera Dvorakova, Laura Contemori and Bernadette Hogg; Editing by Matt Scuffham and Barbara Lewis)