Finance
Job loss fears may explain disappointing euro zone consumption, ECB blog argues
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 20, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 26, 2026
Global Banking & Finance Review®
Company
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 20, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 26, 2026
ECB study links euro zone consumption slump to job loss fears. Workers save more due to reduced workloads, impacting economic growth.
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Reduced workloads faced by some employees may make them save up excessively out of fear of losing their jobs, a European Central Bank study argued on Thursday, hoping to answer a key economic puzzle that has wrong-footed policymakers for the past year.
With employment breaking record highs, the ECB has long expected consumption to take off and drive growth, only to be disappointed quarter after quarter as the economy remains broadly stagnant.
A fresh blog post from the ECB now suggests that a large chunk of workers have seen a significant dip in their workload and they are responding by pushing up saving and curbing consumption, fearing that their job could be gone soon.
"To put it simply, during a downturn those who have less on their plate have more on their mind," the ECB said in a blog post. "In an economy with weak growth yet a robust job market, labour hoarding and related low labour utilisation may drag on consumption."
The ECB said that its Consumer Expectations Survey shows 10% of workers reporting lower-than-usual workload with construction and industry disproportionately affected.
"Workers who report lower workloads feel more at risk of losing their jobs within the next three months," the ECB said.
These workers also expect lower pay increases and will also adjust spending accordingly.
"Workers expect a currently low workload to impact their future earnings, even if their jobs aren’t at risk," the blog argued. "Apparently, they are also factoring in lower productivity and weakened bargaining power."
(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
The ECB study suggests that many workers are saving excessively due to fears of job loss, particularly those experiencing reduced workloads.
Despite record high employment, consumption in the euro zone has not increased as expected, with many workers curbing spending due to job insecurity.
The construction and industrial sectors are disproportionately affected by reduced workloads, as indicated by the ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey.
Workers expect that their currently low workloads will negatively impact their future earnings, even if they do not perceive their jobs as at risk.
The ECB notes that in an economy with weak growth but a strong job market, labor hoarding occurs, leading to increased anxiety among workers about job security.
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