BP says drop in refining margins to dent Q4 profit

(Reuters) -BP warned on Tuesday that lower production, weak refining margins and sluggish trading would see its profit in the fourth quarter of 2024 fall from the previous three months.

Since taking the helm a year ago, CEO Murray Auchincloss has scaled back the firm's energy transition strategy in an effort to boost profits and regain investor confidence as BP's share lags behind its competitors.

A capital markets event previously scheduled for Feb. 11 in New York will instead take place on Feb. 26 in London, BP said, as Auchincloss is recovering from a planned medical procedure.

BP said the drop in refining margins and a higher impact from turnaround and maintenance activity would result in a quarter-on-quarter drop in profit of up to $300 million, while realisations in its oil production and operations unit could lead to a further reduction of $200 million to $400 million. It also expects a drop in upstream production.

The company's third quarter underlying replacement cost profit, the company's definition of net income, was $2.27 billion, already the weakest since the fourth quarter of 2020, when profits collapsed during the pandemic.

Global demand for gasoline and diesel has fallen short of expectations, while the launch of new oil refineries in Asia and Africa has resulted in oversupply.

Last week, Shell warned of weakness across multiple divisions, while Exxon Mobil signalled a $1.75 billion drop in fourth-quarter earnings.

BP, which will release fourth quarter results on Feb. 11, expects its net debt at end-December to have fallen from the end of the previous quarter. Exploration write-offs are seen falling by $100 million to $200 million.

(Reporting by Arunima Kumar in London; Editing by Savio D'Souza, Kirsten Donovan)