Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on January 30, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 26, 2026
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ASML will no longer publish its volatile bookings metric, opting for forecasts to guide investors. This change aims to reduce stock price swings.
By Toby Sterling
AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Top computer chip equipment maker ASML has decided to stop publishing the most closely-watched figure in its quarterly financial results, new order bookings, saying it is too "lumpy" and leads to excessive volatility in its share price.
The Dutch company says its own forecasts are a better guide, as they are based on discussions with chipmakers about their capacity plans, in which ASML's circuit-printing machinery plays a major role.
New orders can take between around six and 18 months to fill, making it hard to interpret how each quarter's figures will play out - sometimes causing big stock price moves.
"The swing factor is significant," Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen said.
Analysts said the company's decision - announced on Wednesday as its stock spiked 7% due to better than expected fourth-quarter bookings - was partly regrettable, but mostly understandable.
"There is downside for investors, as ... (at present) we can monitor how average bookings are moving and whether we are getting confidence in the backlog for the next 12+ months," said Sara Russo of Bernstein.
"I do agree with ASML that in the context of a single quarter of bookings, it’s not a very useful measure of the longer-term health and stability of the business."
Fourth-quarter bookings of 7.1 billion euros ($7.4 billion) compared to the third quarter's 2.6 billion euros. The big difference was likely timing of orders from top chipmaker TSMC of Taiwan, which this month announced plans for $38 billion in capital spending in 2025.
"Capex for large spenders TSMC, Intel, and Samsung already tells you enough," said Degroof Petercam analyst Michael Roeg, who said he was okay with ASML's decision despite initially viewing it as a step backward in transparency.
In 2024, ASML shares surged more than 30% and then handed back all of those gains, but Dassen noted the company's full-year sales and margins wound up in line with forecasts the company had issued last January.
"If you put all those quarters together, you see it wasn't too shabby, was it?" he told reporters.
($1 = 0.9608 euros)
(Reporting by Toby Sterling; Editing by Mark Potter)
ASML decided to stop publishing new order bookings because they believe their own forecasts, based on discussions with chipmakers, provide a better guide for understanding business health.
Following the announcement, ASML's stock spiked by 7% due to better than expected fourth-quarter bookings.
ASML reported fourth-quarter bookings of 7.1 billion euros, a significant increase from 2.6 billion euros in the third quarter.
Analysts have mixed feelings; while some find it regrettable, they also understand the reasoning behind it, noting that average bookings can still be monitored.
Order bookings can take between six and 18 months to fill, making it challenging to interpret quarterly figures, which can lead to significant stock price fluctuations.
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