UK inflation could end 2026 at around 3% if energy prices hold, OBR's miles says

UK inflation could end 2026 at around 3% if energy prices hold, OBR's Miles says

OBR Official Comments on UK Inflation Outlook and Energy Prices

LONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - Britain's inflation rate could end the year at around 3% rather than the roughly 2% rate assumed by the country's fiscal forecasters if energy prices stay at current levels, an official at the Office for Budget Responsibility said on Tuesday.

Impact of Energy Prices on Inflation Projections

"Material, significant, as yet not on the same scale as we experienced after the Russian invasion of Ukraine," David Miles, a member of the OBR's Budget Responsibility Committee told lawmakers.

Volatility in Energy Markets

"I'd have given you a different answer probably yesterday morning and by the end of this week it will look different again," Miles said, referring to the volatility in prices in energy markets caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

Potential Scenarios for Energy Prices

If prices fell in the next four or five weeks to levels before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, the effect on consumer price inflation would be very limited and the rise was unlikely to have a big impact on household energy bills, he said.

(Writing by William Schomberg, editing by Andy Bruce)