Headlines
Tariff reduction helps Swiss government to lift growth forecast
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on December 15, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 20, 2026
Global Banking and Finance Review
Company
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on December 15, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 20, 2026
Swiss government raises 2026 growth forecast to 1.1% due to US tariff cuts, improving export conditions. Domestic demand remains key growth driver.
By John Revill
ZURICH, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Swiss government raised its 2026 economic growth forecast on Monday, saying an agreement to lower U.S. import tariffs on its products meant its exporters would be hit less hard by trade barriers.
Bern agreed with Washington in November on a preliminary deal to lower U.S. tariffs to 15% from 39%.
The government's panel of economic experts now expects Swiss growth of 1.1% in 2026, up from the 0.9% rate it forecast in October.
"The reduction in U.S. tariffs on Swiss products has strengthened the outlook and planning certainty for directly affected sectors and companies," the government said.
Still, the figure represented a downturn from the 1.4% growth rate forecast for 2025.
In its first outlook for 2027, the government's expert group said it expected Swiss economic growth to accelerate to 1.7%.
All the figures were adjusted for the impact of sporting events and were based on the assumption that international tariffs would remain at current levels.
ELEVATED RISKS REMAIN, GOVERNMENT SAYS
Uncertainties remained high, the government said.
"Global uncertainty surrounding trade and economic policy remains elevated, and the Swiss franc continues to be highly valued," it said.
Foreign trade is expected to provide a positive, although moderate, stimulus in the coming year, with goods exports in the coming quarters forecast to exceed October expectations.
Domestic demand will remain the main driver of growth, the government said.
It expects Swiss inflation to remain subdued at 0.2% in 2025 and 2026 before rising to 0.5% in 2027.
Unemployment will rise from 2.8% in 2025 to 3.1% next year, before declining to 2.9% in 2027, it said.
The forecasts matched those of the KOF Institute at ETH in Zurich, which also published its latest forecasts on Monday.
KOF revised its projections for 2026 and 2027 slightly upwards.
Delays to expanded fiscal spending in Germany and a slowdown in the United States linked to weakening consumer sentiment and soft labour market were cited as potential drags by KOF.
It also saw risks connected with the tariff reduction, saying the mutual declaration of intent was not legally binding.
(Reporting by John Revill, Editing by Miranda Murray and Timothy Heritage)
Economic growth refers to the increase in the production of goods and services in an economy over time, typically measured as the percentage increase in real GDP.
Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, eroding purchasing power, and is usually measured annually.
Financial stability is a condition in which the financial system operates effectively and efficiently, maintaining confidence in the financial markets and institutions.
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