Sterling ticks up, PMIs show UK price pressures

By Greta Rosen Fondahn

(Reuters) – Sterling rose against the dollar and euro on Monday as a survey of business activity pointed to a rise in prices in Britain and as investors braced for a string of central bank meetings this week, including the Bank of England on Thursday.

British businesses this month cut staff numbers at the fastest pace in almost four years, raised prices and turned more pessimistic about the outlook, a survey showed on Monday.

The preliminary S&P Global Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index held at 50.5 in December, remaining just above the 50.0 line that separates growth from contraction, but below expectations in a Reuters poll of economists for a rise to 50.7.

The pound rose as much 0.52% against the greenback on Monday, and recuperated some of last week’s losses, when the currency tumbled and hit its lowest point since Nov. 27 on Friday at $1.2607 after data showed that the British economy shrank unexpectedly in October.

At 1100 GMT the currency had pared some of those gains, up 0.31% against the dollar at $1.2647.

The pound also strengthened against the euro, with the single currency down 0.28% to 82.96 pence.

Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen, FX research analyst at Danske Bank, said markets focused on the “sticky price components” in the PMI data.

“Price indices [are] higher across the board indicating some continuous stickiness in price setting, a key concern for the BoE,” Kundby-Nielsen said.

Prices charged by firms rose at the steepest pace in nine months as input costs, including salaries, went up.

The PMI survey pointed to a stalling of the economy in final quarter of 2024 and possibly worse to come in early 2025, said S&P Global Market Intelligence’s chief business economist Christ Williamson.

“Policymakers at the Bank of England may be cautious about cutting interest rates, however, given the resurgence of inflation being signalled, adding further to downturn risks in 2025,” he said.

Money markets largely expect the BoE to hold rates steady on Thursday.

The central bank decision will come a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and signal a measured pace of easing for 2025.

Sterling is set for a monthly decline against the euro, which has risen 0.8% in December, but it is still on course for a near 4% gain this year against the single European currency.

In part, that is due to the expected difference in interest rates in Britain and the euro zone, as the BoE is likely to move more slowly on cuts than the European Central Bank.

(Reporting by Greta Rosen Fondahn; Editing by Alex Richardson)