Finance
Sterling slips before key Manchester vote; rate outlook under scrutiny
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 26, 2026
3 min readLast updated: February 26, 2026
Quick Summary
Sterling eased ahead of Manchester’s Gorton & Denton by-election as traders reassessed the BoE path after a narrow 5–4 hold. Bailey called a March cut a 'genuinely open question', while gilt yields and DMO sales kept rates in focus.
Pound softens ahead of Manchester vote as markets eye BoE rate path
By Niket Nishant
Markets and Political Drivers
Feb 26 (Reuters) - The British pound edged lower on Thursday ahead of a local election in Manchester that could offer an early read on Prime Minister Keir Starmer's political standing.
The currency traded 0.13% lower against the dollar at $1.3541. It was also 0.1% weaker against the euro at 87.14 pence.
Manchester vote adds political risk
Political uncertainty has been a major drag on sentiment, with the vote in Gorton and Denton, in northwestern England's Greater Manchester, marking the latest challenge for Starmer.
The prime minister's judgment came into question over several policy U-turns and the appointment of Labour veteran Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington.
Mandelson was sacked after a trove of emails showed his links to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. He has denied any wrongdoing.
"A defeat for the Labour Party could increase pressure on Keir Starmer's position as prime minister and would add to concerns over the Party's sliding popularity ahead of the local elections in May," analysts at MUFG wrote.
RATE POLICY IN FOCUS
BoE’s March cut debate
Sterling has swung this week as investors assessed the Bank of England's rate path.
Services inflation remains a concern
At a session of the parliamentary Treasury Committee, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said a rate cut in March was a "genuinely open question," pointing to services inflation as a key concern.
On the other hand, sluggish GDP growth and higher unemployment in the fourth quarter, combined with lower inflation in January, have reinforced expectations that the BoE may need to reduce rates soon.
MPC held rates in a 5–4 split
The BoE left policy rates unchanged in a narrow 5–4 split at its meeting earlier this month. Bailey voted to hold.
Gilt yields and DMO issuance
Gilt yields are also drawing attention ahead of next week's bond issuance plans from the UK Debt Management Office.
10-year yields hover near recent lows
British 10-year yields dipped one basis point to 4.31% after falling to their lowest since December 2024 earlier this week.
Budget outlook from Rachel Reeves
Finance minister Rachel Reeves is due to announce new economic forecasts in an annual budget update speech next week.
Markets sensitive to the inflation narrative
"Don't expect a blockbuster — but there are several areas to watch. Markets will be particularly sensitive to the inflation narrative," said Rathbones' financial planning divisional lead Rebecca Williams.
(Reporting by Niket Nishant in London; Editing by Sharon Singleton)
Key Takeaways
- •Sterling edged lower ahead of the Gorton & Denton by-election, reflecting heightened UK political risk.
- •BoE policy path is in focus after a 5–4 vote to hold rates; Bailey called a March cut a 'genuinely open question'.
- •Softening growth, higher unemployment and easing inflation are reinforcing market bets on BoE cuts.
- •UK gilt yields hover near recent lows as investors eye next week’s DMO issuance calendar.
- •Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver updated economic forecasts soon, which could sway market sentiment.
Frequently Asked Questions about Sterling slips before key Manchester vote; rate outlook under scrutiny
1What is the main topic?
The article covers a dip in the British pound ahead of Manchester’s Gorton & Denton by-election and how shifting expectations for Bank of England rate cuts are influencing markets.
2Why is the BoE outlook critical for sterling now?
After a 5–4 vote to hold rates, Governor Andrew Bailey said a March cut is a 'genuinely open question'. Softer growth, easing inflation and labor market slack are shaping rate expectations and sterling’s direction.
3What near-term events could move GBP?
The Gorton & Denton by-election result, the BoE decision on March 19, gilt issuance from the UK DMO, and Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s upcoming budget update and forecasts.
