Finance
StanChart, Morgan Stanley push BoE rate cut calls to second quarter on mideast conflict
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 10, 2026
2 min readLast updated: March 10, 2026
Quick Summary
Standard Chartered and Morgan Stanley delay their expected Bank of England rate cuts to Q2 amid soaring Middle East-driven energy prices, with markets now pricing a 98% likelihood the BoE holds rates in March.
StanChart, Morgan Stanley Delay BoE Rate Cut Forecasts as Energy Prices Surge
Delayed Rate Cut Expectations Amid Surging Energy Prices
March 10 (Reuters) - Standard Chartered and Morgan Stanley now expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates in the second quarter, delaying earlier forecasts amid inflation risks from the Middle East conflict.
Impact of Energy Price Increases on Inflation
Oil and gas prices have jumped about 50% and 90% since late February, according to StanChart estimates, raising inflation risks that could force central banks, including the BoE, to alter their easing path.
Markets are now pricing a 98% chance the BoE holds rates this month, according to data compiled by the LSEG.
StanChart's Revised Forecasts
The British brokerage has pushed its March cut to the second quarter and its forecast of subsequent cuts by a quarter, leaving the terminal rate at 3.25% by the end of 2026.
StanChart warned that prolonged energy price spikes could add up to 1.5 percentage points to eurozone inflation.
Risks for the UK Economy
Investors see Britain as particularly exposed to an energy price shock, with already stretched public finances likely to face further strain if the government cushions energy costs.
Morgan Stanley's Updated Projections
Morgan Stanley dropped its call for a March rate cut and now expects the BoE to ease in April, followed by cuts in November and February 2027, rather than in July and November.
Outlook for Rate Hikes and Cuts
Both Morgan Stanley and StanChart see a lower likelihood of rate hikes this year unless inflation risks rise rapidly.
Expert Commentary
"We struggle to forecast hikes in the UK in 2026," Morgan Stanley said.
"If the energy price shock proves more permanent, we think a pivot to hikes would require a clear rise in inflation expectations, whereas rate cuts should not be discounted if recession risks become more pronounced," Standard Chartered said in a note on Monday.
Potential Impact on UK GDP Growth
Morgan Stanley said a 10% drop in oil and gas prices could shave about 20 basis points off UK GDP growth, while oil sustained at around $120 per barrel could cut growth by 70 bps.
Upcoming BoE Decision
The BoE Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet on March 19.
(Reporting by Rashika Singh and Siddarth S in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)
Key Takeaways
- •Middle East conflict has triggered ~50% gas and ~90% oil price surges, heightening inflation risks and prompting revised forecasts by StanChart and Morgan Stanley
- •Markets now assign a ~98% chance the BoE will hold rates at its March 19 meeting, delaying cuts until Q2
- •StanChart now sees terminal BoE rate at ~3.25% by end‑2026; Morgan Stanley expects easing starting April, then cuts in Nov and Feb 2027
Frequently Asked Questions about StanChart, Morgan Stanley push BoE rate cut calls to second quarter on Mideast conflict
1How are energy prices affecting UK inflation and monetary policy?
Oil and gas prices have surged about 50% and 90%, elevating inflation risks and causing central banks, including the BoE, to reconsider their easing plans.
2What are the latest expectations for Bank of England rate cuts?
Both banks expect the BoE to hold rates this month, with potential rate cuts now seen in April and beyond, rather than in March as previously forecast.
3What could lead the Bank of England to resume rate hikes?
Rate hikes would only be likely if inflation risks rise rapidly or if energy price shocks become more permanent, leading to higher inflation expectations.
4When is the next Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting?
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet on March 19.
