Socialist Candidate Antonio Jose Seguro Poised for Victory in Portugal

Overview of the Presidential Runoff

By Andrei Khalip

Candidates and Their Support

LISBON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Moderate Socialist Antonio Jose Seguro is set for a landslide win on Sunday in Portugal's presidential runoff vote, opinion polls show, after prominent conservatives backed him to prevent a victory for far-right leader Andre Ventura.

Impact of the Far-Right

As Seguro and Ventura wrapped up their campaigns in storm-hit areas of Portugal on Friday, all surveys pointed to Seguro getting 50-60% of the vote, about double Ventura's share. Roughly two-thirds of those surveyed say they would never vote for Ventura.

Public Sentiment and Predictions

Conservatives, including former President Anibal Cavaco Silva and some ministers in the current centre-right government, as well as most first-round candidates, have backed Seguro against what they see as Ventura's authoritarian tendencies. 

"This is quite uncommon in Europe... to see them (the centre-right) supporting a Socialist," said Javier Carbonell, a political analyst at the European Policy Centre think-tank.

"There is an element of the status quo and an element of a democratic front that they feel needs to be preserved."

VENTURA'S RISE

Ventura, a charismatic former sports commentator, has said he was "stupefied" by the centre-right's support for Seguro. However, the ballot is expected to further broaden his political clout, reflecting the rise of the far right across Europe.

His anti-establishment, anti-immigration Chega party, which many analysts describe as a "one-man show", became the second-largest parliamentary force in last year's general election.

As in much of Europe, the far right's influence has already swayed government policies, particularly on immigration, towards a more restrictive stance.

Now, Ventura, who has toured areas battered by the storms and flooding over the past week and has accused the government of responding too slowly, could come close to or even surpass the 31.2% of support won by the ruling Democratic Alliance in the 2025 parliamentary election, according to some projections.

Ventura has said that, if elected on Sunday, he would seek constitutional changes to expand the president's limited powers and would be a more "interventionist" head of state.

However, after winning 23.5% of the vote against Seguro's 31.1% in last month's first round, Ventura has failed to realise his stated ambition to unite the right for the runoff.

"It looks like society wants to preserve this democratic and constitutional order, while Ventura is a menace to the centre-left and centre-right equilibrium," said political scientist Adelino Maltez.

"Still, any additional percentage point, especially if he overtakes the ruling alliance, is a kind of victory for him."

(Reporting by Andrei KhalipEditing by Gareth Jones)