Finance
Russia's oil and gas revenue seen halving y/y in February
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 19, 2026
2 min readLast updated: February 19, 2026
Quick Summary
Russia’s February oil and gas revenue is estimated at 410bn roubles, almost half y/y on a stronger rouble and weaker oil. A damper reversal lifts m/m 3.1%, while Jan–Feb totals near 800bn roubles, far below 2025.
Russia's Oil and Gas Revenue Expected to Halve Year-on-Year in February
Budget Impact and Revenue Drivers
MOSCOW, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Russian state oil and gas revenue is seen almost halving in February to 410 billion roubles ($5.35 billion) from the same month in 2025 due to a stronger local currency and lower oil prices, Reuters calculations showed on Thursday.
Share of Oil-Gas in Federal Budget
Oil and gas revenue is the main source of income for the Kremlin, accounting for more than a fifth of federal budget proceeds that have been drained by heavy defence and security spending since Russia began its military campaign in Ukraine in February 2022.
Reuters calculations are based on oil and gas production data, refining, and supplies on domestic and international markets.
Expected 3.1% Monthly Rise
Damper Payment Dynamics
Monthly revenue is expected to increase by 3.1% from January thanks to a subsidy, known as a damper payment, which is usually paid to the oil refineries.
42 Billion Rouble Payment to State
However, the oil companies will this month make an expected 42 billion rouble damper payment to the state as fuel prices are making it less profitable to sell fuel abroad.
Jan–Feb Revenue vs 2025
Year-to-Date Results and Outlook
Russia's oil and gas revenue over January-February is expected to total 800 billion roubles, down from 1.56 trillion roubles in the first two months of 2025.
2026 Budget Projections
The budget forecasts income of 8.92 trillion roubles from oil and gas sales this year. Total budget revenue for 2026 is seen at 40.283 trillion roubles.
Historical Context Since 2020
Last year, Russia's federal budget revenue from oil and gas dropped 24% to 8.48 trillion roubles, the lowest level since 2020.
Exchange Rate Assumption
($1 = 76.6500 roubles)
(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
Key Takeaways
- •February 2026 oil and gas revenue is estimated at 410 billion roubles, nearly 50% lower year on year.
- •A stronger rouble and softer oil prices are the main drivers of the decline.
- •Month-on-month revenue is seen up 3.1% due to a damper reversal affecting refinery subsidies.
- •Oil firms are expected to pay 42 billion roubles to the state under the damper this month.
- •Jan–Feb revenue totals about 800 billion roubles vs 1.56 trillion a year earlier; the 2026 oil and gas target is 8.92 trillion.
Frequently Asked Questions about Russia's oil and gas revenue seen halving y/y in February
1What is the main topic?
Reuters-based estimates suggest Russia’s oil and gas revenue in February 2026 will be about 410 billion roubles, roughly half the level a year earlier. The article explains the drivers and short-term budget impact.
2Why are Russia’s oil and gas revenues falling?
A stronger rouble reduces rouble-denominated oil receipts, while lower global oil prices cut export tax and duty inflows. Together, these factors push revenues sharply lower year on year.
3What is the damper payment and how does it affect revenue?
The fuel damper is a subsidy mechanism that usually compensates refineries to stabilize domestic fuel prices. In February, market conditions flip it, with oil companies expected to pay 42 billion roubles to the state, lifting revenue 3.1% m/m.
