Russia's pipeline gas exports to China seen up 25% this year, source says

MOSCOW, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Russia's pipeline exports of natural gas to China are expected to have risen by a quarter this year, a source familiar with the data told Reuters on Monday, as Moscow ramps up sales to Asia and cements ties with the world's largest energy consumer.

However, this will not offset the fall in revenue from the loss of the European gas market, Reuters calculations showed.

Russia has re-routed most of its oil to India and China since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022 as Moscow and Europe -  once its main commodity export market  and source of revenue - severed ties. 

It's proven harder to divert gas flows eastwards and painstaking talks to bring more Russian gas to China have yielded limited results.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity as he was not authorised to talk to media, said Russian energy giant Gazprom expects gas exports to China via the Power of Siberia Pipeline to reach around 38.6-38.7 billion cubic metres this year, up from 31 bcm in 2024 and exceeding the pipeline's planned annual capacity of 38 bcm. 

Gazprom did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Its Chief Executive Officer Alexei Miller said in October that supplies via Power of Siberia 1 would exceed 38 bcm this year.

During Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to China in September, the countries agreed to increase annual volumes on the route by an additional 6 bcm, to 44 bcm, a year.

Russia and China also gave their blessing to the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which could one day deliver an additional 50 bcm of Russian gas per year through Mongolia from the Arctic gas fields of Yamal.  

However, the main obstacle to implementing the project, the price of Russian gas, remains unresolved. 

China has also agreed to increase the amount of gas it buys via a pipeline from Sakhalin Island in Russia's Far East to 12 bcm a year from the 10 bcm agreed previously. The route is expected to be operational from 2027.

LOSS OF EUROPEAN MARKET AND REVENUE

Russia's economy ministry estimates that revenue from gas exports to China will be 30%-40% lower than the value of exports to Europe in 2025-2028.

The only operational route for Russian gas supplies to Europe is via the TurkStream pipeline under the Black Sea. Deliveries via Ukraine - which amounted to around 12-15 bcm in recent years - were halted at the start of the year as Moscow and Kyiv failed to extend a transit deal.

According to Russian finance ministry data, gas exports generated around 420 billion roubles ($5.28 billion)  for the state budget in January - November. 

Gas exports will raise around 470 billion roubles this year,  Reuters calculations show,  71% below 2022's record 1.63 trillion roubles, when gas prices spiked at European hubs, and down from 490 billion roubles in 2024.

($1 = 79.5500 roubles)

(Reporting by Reuters; editing by Guy Faulconbridge, Kirsten Donovan)