Finance
Philip Morris forecasts 2026 profit growth, but competitive pressures rise
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 6, 2026
3 min readLast updated: February 6, 2026
Quick Summary
Philip Morris forecasts strong annual profit driven by Zyn sales, despite rising competition from brands like Velo. U.S. volumes of Zyn grew 19% in Q4.
Philip Morris Projects Strong Profit Growth for 2026 Amid Competition
Philip Morris Profit Forecast and Competitive Landscape
By Angela Christy M and Emma Rumney
Investment Strategies for Growth
BENGALURU/LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Philip Morris International forecast higher-than-expected 2026 profit on Friday, even as leading nicotine pouch brand Zyn struggles to fend off competitors eating into its market share.
Market Reactions and Analyst Insights
The world's largest tobacco company by market capitalisation, which sells Marlboro outside the U.S., said it expects to grow adjusted earnings per share by 11.1% to 13.1% this year, beating analyst estimates.
Future Earnings Expectations
However, shares in the company fell 2.9% in pre-market trading.
PMI investors have been rattled by a growing threat from rivals including British American Tobacco, has been taking a larger share of category growth, raising concerns about Zyn’s momentum.
The company said U.S. volumes of the nicotine pouch grew 19% in the fourth quarter, "supported by a wide range of commercial activities."
Similar initiatives in the third quarter, including a large one-off promotion costing $100 million, hit PMI's shares as investors worried PMI would have to compromise on Zyn profitability to protect market share.
The company said it anticipated up to $1.6 billion in investments to support growth of its newer products like Zyn and heated tobacco device IQOS, also facing competitive pressures, which it is betting on to replace revenues lost from cigarettes as smoking rates fall in some markets.
PMI CEO Jacek Olczak said the company had a "remarkable" year that had seen it achieve its 2024-2026 targets ahead of schedule, leaving it on track to outperform this year. PMI renewed the targets for the period spanning 2026-2028.
"This again demonstrates our ability to create sustainable value for our shareholders," he said.
However, PMI's results were mixed, Callum Elliot, analyst at Bernstein said in a note, with slightly lower revenues than forecast in the fourth quarter and, critically, a lack of any guidance on U.S. Zyn growth.
This is "likely to be seen as a negative, stoking fears of ongoing share loss," he said.
Philip Morris expects full-year adjusted earnings per share of $8.38 to $8.53 for 2026, higher than analysts' estimate of $8.33, according to data compiled by LSEG.
The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.7 per share for the fourth quarter, in line with analysts' estimates.
(Reporting by Angela Christy in Bengaluru and Emma Rumney in London; Editing by Sahal Muhammed and Louise Heavens)
Key Takeaways
- •Philip Morris forecasts higher annual profit driven by Zyn sales.
- •Zyn is a leading nicotine pouch brand in the U.S. market.
- •Competition is rising from brands like British American Tobacco's Velo.
- •U.S. volumes of Zyn grew 19% in the fourth quarter.
- •Philip Morris' earnings per share are expected to exceed analyst estimates.
Frequently Asked Questions about Philip Morris forecasts 2026 profit growth, but competitive pressures rise
1What is market capitalisation?
Market capitalisation refers to the total market value of a company's outstanding shares of stock, calculated by multiplying the share price by the total number of shares.
2What are smoking alternatives?
Smoking alternatives are products designed to provide nicotine without traditional smoking, including items like e-cigarettes, nicotine pouches, and heated tobacco products.
