Oil rises as expanding US-Israeli conflict with iran elevates supply risks

Oil rises as expanding US-Israeli conflict with Iran elevates supply risks

By Anushree Mukherjee and Emily Chow

Middle East Conflict Drives Oil Price Surge

SINGAPORE, March 3 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a third day on Tuesday as the widening U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears of supply disruptions from the key Middle East producing region.

Recent Oil Price Movements

Brent crude futures were at $79.44 a barrel, up $1.70, or 2.2%, by 0400 GMT. On Monday, the contract surged to as high as $82.37, its highest since January 2025, though it pared those gains to settle 6.7% higher.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped $1.17, or 1.6%, to $72.40 a barrel. In the previous session, the contract initially climbed to its highest since June 2025 before sliding back to still settle up 6.3%.

Analyst Insights on Market Risks

"With no quick de-escalation in sight, the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and Iran showing a willingness to target energy infrastructure in the region, upside risks remain and they grow the longer the conflict drags on," Tony Sycamore, IG market analyst, said in a note.

Escalation of US-Israeli and Iranian Actions

The U.S. and Israeli air war against Iran widened on Monday with Israel attacking Lebanon and Iran responding with strikes against energy infrastructure in Gulf countries and against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Impact on Shipping and Insurance

Tankers and container ships are also avoiding the waterway as insurers have cancelled their coverage for vessels, while global oil and gas shipping rates have soared. Concerns about transiting the waterway increased after Iranian media reported on Monday that a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards official said the Strait of Hormuz is closed and warned Iran will fire on any ship trying to pass.

Significance of the Strait of Hormuz

About 20% of the world's oil and gas pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Market Reactions and Future Outlook

"The market continues to digest the risk of escalation in the Middle East," said ING analysts in a Tuesday note.

"While there are concerns about oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a greater risk to the market would be Iran targeting additional energy infrastructure in the region. This could lead to more prolonged outages."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran may take "some time" but it will not take years.

Analyst Forecasts and Price Projections

Analysts expect oil prices to remain elevated over the coming days while markets focus on the impact of escalating Middle East conflict. 

Bernstein on Monday raised its 2026 Brent oil price assumption from $65 to $80 a barrel, but sees prices reaching $120-$150 in an extreme case of prolonged conflict.

Refined Products and Fuel Market Impact

Refined product futures are also gaining as the Middle East is a key supplier of fuels and their processing facilities are at risk. On Monday, Saudi Arabia shut its biggest domestic oil refinery after a drone strike.

Performance of Fuel and Gasoil Futures

U.S. ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures were up 4.2% at $3.0207 per gallon after reaching a two-year high on Monday, while gasoline futures were up 1.7% at $2.4113 per gallon after climbing 3.7% in the previous session.

European gasoil futures <LGOc1> gained 4.3% to $925 a metric ton, after climbing 18% on Monday.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Stephen Coates)